I had been following @mikefarb1 with great interest on Twitter. He and a crowd-sourced team have been finding some very interesting peculiarities in precinct-level election statistics from recent elections. His website is here.
At some point @mikefarb1 posted a link to an article about a statistician’s denied request to audit Kansas voting machines based on some statistically anomalous results she had found when looking at precinct-level election returns vs. precinct size.
This led me to some extremely alarming papers by statisticians who have noticed odd-looking data when they tally precinct-level votes starting with the smallest precincts and moving to the largest.
I found this quite shocking. Their results looked bizarre:
How Trustworthy are Electronic Voting Systems in the US? (Beth Clarkson)
Republican Primary Election 2012 Results – Amazing Statistical Anomalies
A Statistician’s Review of “Republican Primary Election 2012 Results: Amazing Statistical Anomalies”
NSA Analyst Proves GOP Is Stealing Elections
So I decided to investigate this myself.
This website is a record of of my ongoing work.
Many hugs of gratitude to Milena and Jenny for hard work well done, and to erika, for editing.
Our deltaM and deltaMxV metrics were developed with much guidance and feedback from Dr. Laura Little and Dr. Tracy Simpson of the University of Washington.
My brief resume is here.