Our analysis of the 2016 Presidential Race in Alabama reveals that 4 of its 5 largest counties show a very strong “red shift”, meaning the Republican share of the vote increases when votes are totaled from smallest to largest precinct.
As explained on our home page, an election should normally obey the law of large numbers fairly well, unless there is a strong reason for people in larger precincts to vote one way rather than another.
This type of analysis is known as a Cumulative Vote Analysis (CVA) or Cumulative Vote Total (CVT).
Very High deltaM Values
Here are the “deltaM” values for all Alabama counties, along with an estimate of the number of votes “flipped” (deltaMxV) in each county. The only county showing a strong negative deltaM is Tuscaloosa.
Election Results Very Closely Tied to Race
While Alabama does not publish voter registration statistics by political party, it does publish the percentage of registered voters in each county by stated race. We compared the race data to the vote data county by county and found an extremely strong parallel between the percentage of voters identifying as white/Caucasian and the percentage of voters who voted for Trump.
Assuming that white and non-white voters were equally likely to vote, this strong correlation indicates that approximately the percentage of white voters who voted for Clinton was approximately equal to the percentage of non-white voters who voted for Trump.