California 2016 Presidential Race – Overview

Our analysis of the 2016 Presidential Race in California shows that data for almost all counties obeys the Law of Large Numbers very well. Additionally, in most counties there is not much difference between the percent of registered Republicans and the percent of votes for the Republican candidate. The three clear exceptions are Fresno County, Tulare County, and Kern County.

The cumulative vote total graphs for these three counties are here:


As explained on our home page, an election should normally obey the law of large numbers fairly well, unless there is a strong reason for people in larger precincts to vote one way rather than another. Our graphs for most large counties such as Los Angeles County and Santa Clara County demonstrate this.

In terms of demographics, it has long been noted that very small districts are more likely to be found in rural areas, which tend to be more conservative, so often the red line is higher and the blue line is lower toward the very left. Typically though, the line goes horizontal rather quickly. We see this pattern clearly in several smaller California counties, including Butte County.

Outside of the above three counties we see this pattern almost without fail, in large counties as well as smaller ones:


Here is what our Cumulative Vote Analysis looks like for the state as a whole:

Click here to explore this data.


It is our opinion that most of California held a clean and valid election in November 2016.