Michigan
ALL votes from Calhoun County.
Precincts added in order of number of votes.
Voters: 41,231 Precincts (polling places): 62 Average voters per precinct: 665 Votes in median precinct: 589Voting Machine: ES&S+Sequoia AutoMARK+Optech Insight Ballot Marking Device or System+Optical Scan
Data from: Michigan Secretary of State
deltaM = 7.8%deltaMxV = 3,220
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Note: X/Y graph display only works for all votes, sorted by precinct size (number of votes)
These graphs show each candidate's CUMULATIVE percent of the vote for all points to the left of and including each precinct. As you move to the right, the results from more and more precincts are included. If you choose "ALL" votes, the points at the far right of the graph represent the outcome of the election.
In order to get a sense of what might be expected if there is no strong correlation between precinct size and political leaning, select "Count votes: In random order". Each time you redraw the graph you will see cumulative totals for randomly sorted precincts.
Benford's Law Analysis
This analysis compares the expected statistical distribution of the left-most digit of the vote count of each precinct to what would be expected for randomly distributed vote counts. It is a method used by forensic accountants to detect possible fraud. There is controversy about whether this law can be applied to elections, but we thought we would have a look at it anyway. Read more here.
NOTE: We show this analysis when there are 50 or more precincts in the set. Some argue that this analysis is best used with sets containing approximately 500 data points or more. Additionally, it is likely to fail if there are a great many precincts of approximately the same size.
NOTE: We show this analysis when there are 50 or more precincts in the set. Some argue that this analysis is best used with sets containing approximately 500 data points or more. Additionally, it is likely to fail if there are a great many precincts of approximately the same size.
Expected Benford's Law Distribution
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
Leftmost Digit of Vote Count - Frequency of Occurrence
Benford's Law Distribution for JOAN LARSEN
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
Leftmost Digit of Vote Count - Frequency of Occurance
Benford's Law Distribution for DEBORAH THOMAS
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
Leftmost Digit of Vote Count - Frequency of Occurance
Benford's Law Distribution for KERRY L. MORGAN
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
Leftmost Digit of Vote Count - Frequency of Occurance
Show Data
Leftmost Digit | Expected Distribution | JOAN LARSEN | DEBORAH THOMAS | KERRY L. MORGAN |
1 | 30.1% | 11.3% | 58.1% | 35.5% |
2 | 17.6% | 21% | 21% | 3.2% |
3 | 12.5% | 22.6% | 6.5% | 3.2% |
4 | 9.7% | 17.7% | 0% | 6.5% |
5 | 7.9% | 8.1% | 0% | 8.1% |
6 | 6.7% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 8.1% |
7 | 5.8% | 6.5% | 1.6% | 11.3% |
8 | 5.1% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 9.7% |
9 | 4.6% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 14.5% |
Detailed Data
Download graph dataJOAN LARSEN (R): Percent of votes: 60.55%, Total votes: 24966 out of 41231
Data
Precinct | Total Votes |
Votes | Percent | Cumulative | Cumulative Total | Cumulative Pct | ALBION CITY 6 | 229 | 126 | 55% | 126 | 229 | 55% | ALBION CITY 2 | 254 | 94 | 37% | 220 | 483 | 46% | ALBION CITY 4 | 273 | 162 | 59% | 382 | 756 | 51% | ALBION CITY 1 | 339 | 147 | 43% | 529 | 1095 | 48% | CLARENDON TOWNSHIP 1 | 349 | 205 | 59% | 734 | 1444 | 51% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 19 | 352 | 185 | 53% | 919 | 1796 | 51% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 11 | 353 | 152 | 43% | 1071 | 2149 | 50% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 7 | 360 | 183 | 51% | 1254 | 2509 | 50% | LEE TOWNSHIP 1 | 391 | 252 | 64% | 1506 | 2900 | 52% | ALBION TOWNSHIP 1 | 398 | 277 | 70% | 1783 | 3298 | 54% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 9 | 400 | 239 | 60% | 2022 | 3698 | 55% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 18 | 433 | 200 | 46% | 2222 | 4131 | 54% | ALBION CITY 3 | 436 | 234 | 54% | 2456 | 4567 | 54% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 1 | 457 | 253 | 55% | 2709 | 5024 | 54% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 4 | 458 | 276 | 60% | 2985 | 5482 | 54% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 12 | 464 | 167 | 36% | 3152 | 5946 | 53% | ALBION CITY 5 | 474 | 210 | 44% | 3362 | 6420 | 52% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 13 | 498 | 293 | 59% | 3655 | 6918 | 53% | SHERIDAN TOWNSHIP 1 | 500 | 333 | 67% | 3988 | 7418 | 54% | MARSHALL TOWNSHIP 2 | 504 | 335 | 66% | 4323 | 7922 | 55% | SPRINGFIELD CITY 2 | 515 | 290 | 56% | 4613 | 8437 | 55% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 17 | 520 | 250 | 48% | 4863 | 8957 | 54% | CONVIS TOWNSHIP 1 | 521 | 383 | 74% | 5246 | 9478 | 55% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 2 | 542 | 304 | 56% | 5550 | 10020 | 55% | TEKONSHA TOWNSHIP 1 | 543 | 316 | 58% | 5866 | 10563 | 56% | ECKFORD TOWNSHIP 1 | 548 | 323 | 59% | 6189 | 11111 | 56% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 14 | 555 | 310 | 56% | 6499 | 11666 | 56% | EMMETT TOWNSHIP 1 | 580 | 321 | 55% | 6820 | 12246 | 56% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 22 | 580 | 373 | 64% | 7193 | 12826 | 56% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 16 | 587 | 348 | 59% | 7541 | 13413 | 56% | BEDFORD TOWNSHIP 3 | 589 | 303 | 51% | 7844 | 14002 | 56% | SPRINGFIELD CITY 1 | 593 | 321 | 54% | 8165 | 14595 | 56% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 21 | 598 | 251 | 42% | 8416 | 15193 | 55% | FREDONIA TOWNSHIP 1 | 616 | 455 | 74% | 8871 | 15809 | 56% | BURLINGTON TOWNSHIP 1 | 622 | 419 | 67% | 9290 | 16431 | 57% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 15 | 666 | 410 | 62% | 9700 | 17097 | 57% | BEDFORD TOWNSHIP 2 | 680 | 465 | 68% | 10165 | 17777 | 57% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 23 | 693 | 382 | 55% | 10547 | 18470 | 57% | HOMER TOWNSHIP 1 | 722 | 358 | 50% | 10905 | 19192 | 57% | LEROY TOWNSHIP 2 | 729 | 429 | 59% | 11334 | 19921 | 57% | MARENGO TOWNSHIP 1 | 754 | 462 | 61% | 11796 | 20675 | 57% | MARSHALL TOWNSHIP 1 | 754 | 589 | 78% | 12385 | 21429 | 58% | CLARENCE TOWNSHIP 1 | 769 | 458 | 60% | 12843 | 22198 | 58% | EMMETT TOWNSHIP 3 | 775 | 439 | 57% | 13282 | 22973 | 58% | LEROY TOWNSHIP 1 | 799 | 600 | 75% | 13882 | 23772 | 58% | ATHENS TOWNSHIP 1 | 802 | 457 | 57% | 14339 | 24574 | 58% | BEDFORD TOWNSHIP 4 | 809 | 414 | 51% | 14753 | 25383 | 58% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 10 | 846 | 500 | 59% | 15253 | 26229 | 58% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 20 | 847 | 539 | 64% | 15792 | 27076 | 58% | PENNFIELD TOWNSHIP 2 | 847 | 441 | 52% | 16233 | 27923 | 58% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 5 | 849 | 528 | 62% | 16761 | 28772 | 58% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 3 | 887 | 591 | 67% | 17352 | 29659 | 59% | NEWTON TOWNSHIP 1 | 1050 | 647 | 62% | 17999 | 30709 | 59% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 6 | 1052 | 691 | 66% | 18690 | 31761 | 59% | BEDFORD TOWNSHIP 1 | 1075 | 666 | 62% | 19356 | 32836 | 59% | EMMETT TOWNSHIP 2 | 1093 | 806 | 74% | 20162 | 33929 | 59% | PENNFIELD TOWNSHIP 3 | 1150 | 706 | 61% | 20868 | 35079 | 59% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 8 | 1150 | 730 | 63% | 21598 | 36229 | 60% | PENNFIELD TOWNSHIP 1 | 1172 | 774 | 66% | 22372 | 37401 | 60% | MARSHALL CITY 1 | 1235 | 798 | 65% | 23170 | 38636 | 60% | EMMETT TOWNSHIP 4 | 1243 | 819 | 66% | 23989 | 39879 | 60% | MARSHALL CITY 2 | 1352 | 977 | 72% | 24966 | 41231 | 61% |
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DEBORAH THOMAS (D): Percent of votes: 24.81%, Total votes: 10229 out of 41231
Data
Precinct | Total Votes |
Votes | Percent | Cumulative | Cumulative Total | Cumulative Pct | ALBION CITY 6 | 229 | 87 | 38% | 87 | 229 | 38% | ALBION CITY 2 | 254 | 127 | 50% | 214 | 483 | 44% | ALBION CITY 4 | 273 | 68 | 25% | 282 | 756 | 37% | ALBION CITY 1 | 339 | 117 | 35% | 399 | 1095 | 36% | CLARENDON TOWNSHIP 1 | 349 | 102 | 29% | 501 | 1444 | 35% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 19 | 352 | 102 | 29% | 603 | 1796 | 34% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 11 | 353 | 127 | 36% | 730 | 2149 | 34% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 7 | 360 | 93 | 26% | 823 | 2509 | 33% | LEE TOWNSHIP 1 | 391 | 101 | 26% | 924 | 2900 | 32% | ALBION TOWNSHIP 1 | 398 | 65 | 16% | 989 | 3298 | 30% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 9 | 400 | 114 | 29% | 1103 | 3698 | 30% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 18 | 433 | 169 | 39% | 1272 | 4131 | 31% | ALBION CITY 3 | 436 | 158 | 36% | 1430 | 4567 | 31% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 1 | 457 | 111 | 24% | 1541 | 5024 | 31% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 4 | 458 | 108 | 24% | 1649 | 5482 | 30% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 12 | 464 | 236 | 51% | 1885 | 5946 | 32% | ALBION CITY 5 | 474 | 192 | 41% | 2077 | 6420 | 32% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 13 | 498 | 106 | 21% | 2183 | 6918 | 32% | SHERIDAN TOWNSHIP 1 | 500 | 83 | 17% | 2266 | 7418 | 31% | MARSHALL TOWNSHIP 2 | 504 | 110 | 22% | 2376 | 7922 | 30% | SPRINGFIELD CITY 2 | 515 | 168 | 33% | 2544 | 8437 | 30% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 17 | 520 | 182 | 35% | 2726 | 8957 | 30% | CONVIS TOWNSHIP 1 | 521 | 65 | 12% | 2791 | 9478 | 29% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 2 | 542 | 147 | 27% | 2938 | 10020 | 29% | TEKONSHA TOWNSHIP 1 | 543 | 131 | 24% | 3069 | 10563 | 29% | ECKFORD TOWNSHIP 1 | 548 | 118 | 22% | 3187 | 11111 | 29% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 14 | 555 | 156 | 28% | 3343 | 11666 | 29% | EMMETT TOWNSHIP 1 | 580 | 163 | 28% | 3506 | 12246 | 29% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 22 | 580 | 115 | 20% | 3621 | 12826 | 28% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 16 | 587 | 148 | 25% | 3769 | 13413 | 28% | BEDFORD TOWNSHIP 3 | 589 | 164 | 28% | 3933 | 14002 | 28% | SPRINGFIELD CITY 1 | 593 | 152 | 26% | 4085 | 14595 | 28% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 21 | 598 | 279 | 47% | 4364 | 15193 | 29% | FREDONIA TOWNSHIP 1 | 616 | 80 | 13% | 4444 | 15809 | 28% | BURLINGTON TOWNSHIP 1 | 622 | 100 | 16% | 4544 | 16431 | 28% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 15 | 666 | 201 | 30% | 4745 | 17097 | 28% | BEDFORD TOWNSHIP 2 | 680 | 114 | 17% | 4859 | 17777 | 27% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 23 | 693 | 180 | 26% | 5039 | 18470 | 27% | HOMER TOWNSHIP 1 | 722 | 152 | 21% | 5191 | 19192 | 27% | LEROY TOWNSHIP 2 | 729 | 150 | 21% | 5341 | 19921 | 27% | MARENGO TOWNSHIP 1 | 754 | 223 | 30% | 5564 | 20675 | 27% | MARSHALL TOWNSHIP 1 | 754 | 75 | 10% | 5639 | 21429 | 26% | CLARENCE TOWNSHIP 1 | 769 | 153 | 20% | 5792 | 22198 | 26% | EMMETT TOWNSHIP 3 | 775 | 187 | 24% | 5979 | 22973 | 26% | LEROY TOWNSHIP 1 | 799 | 91 | 11% | 6070 | 23772 | 26% | ATHENS TOWNSHIP 1 | 802 | 172 | 21% | 6242 | 24574 | 25% | BEDFORD TOWNSHIP 4 | 809 | 307 | 38% | 6549 | 25383 | 26% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 10 | 846 | 211 | 25% | 6760 | 26229 | 26% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 20 | 847 | 156 | 18% | 6916 | 27076 | 26% | PENNFIELD TOWNSHIP 2 | 847 | 222 | 26% | 7138 | 27923 | 26% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 5 | 849 | 209 | 25% | 7347 | 28772 | 26% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 3 | 887 | 237 | 27% | 7584 | 29659 | 26% | NEWTON TOWNSHIP 1 | 1050 | 328 | 31% | 7912 | 30709 | 26% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 6 | 1052 | 282 | 27% | 8194 | 31761 | 26% | BEDFORD TOWNSHIP 1 | 1075 | 280 | 26% | 8474 | 32836 | 26% | EMMETT TOWNSHIP 2 | 1093 | 172 | 16% | 8646 | 33929 | 25% | PENNFIELD TOWNSHIP 3 | 1150 | 302 | 26% | 8948 | 35079 | 26% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 8 | 1150 | 257 | 22% | 9205 | 36229 | 25% | PENNFIELD TOWNSHIP 1 | 1172 | 181 | 15% | 9386 | 37401 | 25% | MARSHALL CITY 1 | 1235 | 341 | 28% | 9727 | 38636 | 25% | EMMETT TOWNSHIP 4 | 1243 | 289 | 23% | 10016 | 39879 | 25% | MARSHALL CITY 2 | 1352 | 213 | 16% | 10229 | 41231 | 25% |
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KERRY L. MORGAN (L): Percent of votes: 14.64%, Total votes: 6036 out of 41231
Data
Precinct | Total Votes |
Votes | Percent | Cumulative | Cumulative Total | Cumulative Pct | ALBION CITY 6 | 229 | 16 | 7% | 16 | 229 | 7% | ALBION CITY 2 | 254 | 33 | 13% | 49 | 483 | 10% | ALBION CITY 4 | 273 | 43 | 16% | 92 | 756 | 12% | ALBION CITY 1 | 339 | 75 | 22% | 167 | 1095 | 15% | CLARENDON TOWNSHIP 1 | 349 | 42 | 12% | 209 | 1444 | 14% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 19 | 352 | 65 | 18% | 274 | 1796 | 15% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 11 | 353 | 74 | 21% | 348 | 2149 | 16% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 7 | 360 | 84 | 23% | 432 | 2509 | 17% | LEE TOWNSHIP 1 | 391 | 38 | 10% | 470 | 2900 | 16% | ALBION TOWNSHIP 1 | 398 | 56 | 14% | 526 | 3298 | 16% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 9 | 400 | 47 | 12% | 573 | 3698 | 15% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 18 | 433 | 64 | 15% | 637 | 4131 | 15% | ALBION CITY 3 | 436 | 44 | 10% | 681 | 4567 | 15% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 1 | 457 | 93 | 20% | 774 | 5024 | 15% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 4 | 458 | 74 | 16% | 848 | 5482 | 15% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 12 | 464 | 61 | 13% | 909 | 5946 | 15% | ALBION CITY 5 | 474 | 72 | 15% | 981 | 6420 | 15% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 13 | 498 | 99 | 20% | 1080 | 6918 | 16% | SHERIDAN TOWNSHIP 1 | 500 | 84 | 17% | 1164 | 7418 | 16% | MARSHALL TOWNSHIP 2 | 504 | 59 | 12% | 1223 | 7922 | 15% | SPRINGFIELD CITY 2 | 515 | 57 | 11% | 1280 | 8437 | 15% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 17 | 520 | 88 | 17% | 1368 | 8957 | 15% | CONVIS TOWNSHIP 1 | 521 | 73 | 14% | 1441 | 9478 | 15% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 2 | 542 | 91 | 17% | 1532 | 10020 | 15% | TEKONSHA TOWNSHIP 1 | 543 | 96 | 18% | 1628 | 10563 | 15% | ECKFORD TOWNSHIP 1 | 548 | 107 | 20% | 1735 | 11111 | 16% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 14 | 555 | 89 | 16% | 1824 | 11666 | 16% | EMMETT TOWNSHIP 1 | 580 | 96 | 17% | 1920 | 12246 | 16% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 22 | 580 | 92 | 16% | 2012 | 12826 | 16% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 16 | 587 | 91 | 16% | 2103 | 13413 | 16% | BEDFORD TOWNSHIP 3 | 589 | 122 | 21% | 2225 | 14002 | 16% | SPRINGFIELD CITY 1 | 593 | 120 | 20% | 2345 | 14595 | 16% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 21 | 598 | 68 | 11% | 2413 | 15193 | 16% | FREDONIA TOWNSHIP 1 | 616 | 81 | 13% | 2494 | 15809 | 16% | BURLINGTON TOWNSHIP 1 | 622 | 103 | 17% | 2597 | 16431 | 16% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 15 | 666 | 55 | 8% | 2652 | 17097 | 16% | BEDFORD TOWNSHIP 2 | 680 | 101 | 15% | 2753 | 17777 | 15% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 23 | 693 | 131 | 19% | 2884 | 18470 | 16% | HOMER TOWNSHIP 1 | 722 | 212 | 29% | 3096 | 19192 | 16% | LEROY TOWNSHIP 2 | 729 | 150 | 21% | 3246 | 19921 | 16% | MARENGO TOWNSHIP 1 | 754 | 69 | 9% | 3315 | 20675 | 16% | MARSHALL TOWNSHIP 1 | 754 | 90 | 12% | 3405 | 21429 | 16% | CLARENCE TOWNSHIP 1 | 769 | 158 | 21% | 3563 | 22198 | 16% | EMMETT TOWNSHIP 3 | 775 | 149 | 19% | 3712 | 22973 | 16% | LEROY TOWNSHIP 1 | 799 | 108 | 14% | 3820 | 23772 | 16% | ATHENS TOWNSHIP 1 | 802 | 173 | 22% | 3993 | 24574 | 16% | BEDFORD TOWNSHIP 4 | 809 | 88 | 11% | 4081 | 25383 | 16% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 10 | 846 | 135 | 16% | 4216 | 26229 | 16% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 20 | 847 | 152 | 18% | 4368 | 27076 | 16% | PENNFIELD TOWNSHIP 2 | 847 | 184 | 22% | 4552 | 27923 | 16% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 5 | 849 | 112 | 13% | 4664 | 28772 | 16% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 3 | 887 | 59 | 7% | 4723 | 29659 | 16% | NEWTON TOWNSHIP 1 | 1050 | 75 | 7% | 4798 | 30709 | 16% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 6 | 1052 | 79 | 8% | 4877 | 31761 | 15% | BEDFORD TOWNSHIP 1 | 1075 | 129 | 12% | 5006 | 32836 | 15% | EMMETT TOWNSHIP 2 | 1093 | 115 | 11% | 5121 | 33929 | 15% | PENNFIELD TOWNSHIP 3 | 1150 | 142 | 12% | 5263 | 35079 | 15% | BATTLE CREEK CITY 8 | 1150 | 163 | 14% | 5426 | 36229 | 15% | PENNFIELD TOWNSHIP 1 | 1172 | 217 | 19% | 5643 | 37401 | 15% | MARSHALL CITY 1 | 1235 | 96 | 8% | 5739 | 38636 | 15% | EMMETT TOWNSHIP 4 | 1243 | 135 | 11% | 5874 | 39879 | 15% | MARSHALL CITY 2 | 1352 | 162 | 12% | 6036 | 41231 | 15% |
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