North Carolina
ELECTION DAY votes from Cumberland County.
Precincts added in order of number of votes.
Voters: 28,734 Precincts (polling places): 73 Average voters per precinct: 394 Votes in median precinct: 377Voting Machine:
deltaM = 0.6%deltaMxV = 171
Click legend entry to show or hide a line.
Options:
Note: X/Y graph display only works for all votes, sorted by precinct size (number of votes)
These graphs show each candidate's CUMULATIVE percent of the vote for all points to the left of and including each precinct. As you move to the right, the results from more and more precincts are included. If you choose "ALL" votes, the points at the far right of the graph represent the outcome of the election.
In order to get a sense of what might be expected if there is no strong correlation between precinct size and political leaning, select "Count votes: In random order". Each time you redraw the graph you will see cumulative totals for randomly sorted precincts.
Benford's Law Analysis
This analysis compares the expected statistical distribution of the left-most digit of the vote count of each precinct to what would be expected for randomly distributed vote counts. It is a method used by forensic accountants to detect possible fraud. There is controversy about whether this law can be applied to elections, but we thought we would have a look at it anyway. Read more here.
NOTE: We show this analysis when there are 50 or more precincts in the set. Some argue that this analysis is best used with sets containing approximately 500 data points or more. Additionally, it is likely to fail if there are a great many precincts of approximately the same size.
NOTE: We show this analysis when there are 50 or more precincts in the set. Some argue that this analysis is best used with sets containing approximately 500 data points or more. Additionally, it is likely to fail if there are a great many precincts of approximately the same size.
Expected Benford's Law Distribution
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
Leftmost Digit of Vote Count - Frequency of Occurrence
Benford's Law Distribution for Rick Elmore
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
Leftmost Digit of Vote Count - Frequency of Occurance
Benford's Law Distribution for Steven Walker
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
Leftmost Digit of Vote Count - Frequency of Occurance
Show Data
Leftmost Digit | Expected Distribution | Rick Elmore | Steven Walker |
1 | 30.1% | 38.6% | 44.3% |
2 | 17.6% | 31.4% | 25.7% |
3 | 12.5% | 18.6% | 15.7% |
4 | 9.7% | 4.3% | 0% |
5 | 7.9% | 0% | 0% |
6 | 6.7% | 0% | 1.4% |
7 | 5.8% | 1.4% | 4.3% |
8 | 5.1% | 2.9% | 4.3% |
9 | 4.6% | 2.9% | 4.3% |
Detailed Data
Download graph dataRick Elmore (D): Percent of votes: 54.31%, Total votes: 15604 out of 28734
Data
Precinct | Total Votes |
Votes | Percent | Cumulative | Cumulative Total | Cumulative Pct | TRANSFER | 62 | 31 | 50% | 31 | 62 | 50% | CC19_CROSS CREEK #19 | 146 | 83 | 57% | 114 | 208 | 55% | CC03_CROSS CREEK #03 | 144 | 73 | 51% | 187 | 352 | 53% | G11B_MANCHESTER-G11 | 179 | 80 | 45% | 267 | 531 | 50% | G3B_CROSS CREEK #11-G3 | 197 | 117 | 59% | 384 | 728 | 53% | G4C_PEARCES MILL #4-G4 | 171 | 99 | 58% | 483 | 899 | 54% | CC32_CROSS CREEK #32 | 210 | 109 | 52% | 592 | 1109 | 53% | CC24_CROSS CREEK #24 | 210 | 91 | 43% | 683 | 1319 | 52% | CC07_CROSS CREEK #07 | 216 | 127 | 59% | 810 | 1535 | 53% | G6B_BEAVER DAM-G6 | 248 | 115 | 46% | 925 | 1783 | 52% | CC04_CROSS CREEK #04 | 226 | 139 | 62% | 1064 | 2009 | 53% | CC10_CROSS CREEK #10 | 229 | 127 | 55% | 1191 | 2238 | 53% | CC06_CROSS CREEK #06 | 255 | 138 | 54% | 1329 | 2493 | 53% | CC01_CROSS CREEK #01 | 223 | 148 | 66% | 1477 | 2716 | 54% | G7B_WADE-G7 | 280 | 138 | 49% | 1615 | 2996 | 54% | G3C_PEARCES MILL #3-G3 | 239 | 141 | 59% | 1756 | 3235 | 54% | G7A_BLACK RIVER-G7 | 315 | 168 | 53% | 1924 | 3550 | 54% | CC13_CROSS CREEK #13 | 275 | 161 | 59% | 2085 | 3825 | 55% | MB62_MONTIBELLO | 279 | 147 | 53% | 2232 | 4104 | 54% | G4A_CROSS CREEK #30-G4 | 316 | 166 | 53% | 2398 | 4420 | 54% | CC05_CROSS CREEK #05 | 277 | 158 | 57% | 2556 | 4697 | 54% | G1A_CROSS CREEK #02-G1 | 316 | 191 | 60% | 2747 | 5013 | 55% | G8B_CUMBERLAND #1A-G8 | 278 | 126 | 45% | 2873 | 5291 | 54% | G4B_CROSS CREEK #20-G4 | 390 | 208 | 53% | 3081 | 5681 | 54% | G8C_CUMBERLAND #3-G8 | 300 | 174 | 58% | 3255 | 5981 | 54% | CC31_CROSS CREEK #31 | 358 | 187 | 52% | 3442 | 6339 | 54% | CC08_CROSS CREEK #08 | 358 | 216 | 60% | 3658 | 6697 | 55% | CC29_CROSS CREEK #29 | 380 | 202 | 53% | 3860 | 7077 | 55% | CC25_CROSS CREEK #25 | 340 | 166 | 49% | 4026 | 7417 | 54% | CU02_CUMBERLAND #2 | 405 | 217 | 54% | 4243 | 7822 | 54% | G6C_CEDAR CREEK-G6 | 442 | 245 | 55% | 4488 | 8264 | 54% | CC18_CROSS CREEK #18 | 358 | 198 | 55% | 4686 | 8622 | 54% | CC16_CROSS CREEK #16 | 299 | 201 | 67% | 4887 | 8921 | 55% | G5C_BRENTWOOD-G5 | 377 | 190 | 50% | 5077 | 9298 | 55% | SH77_SHERWOOD | 409 | 236 | 58% | 5313 | 9707 | 55% | EO61-2_EASTOVER #2 | 458 | 254 | 55% | 5567 | 10165 | 55% | CC17_CROSS CREEK #17 | 386 | 191 | 49% | 5758 | 10551 | 55% | G10B_HOPE MILLS #4-G10 | 379 | 228 | 60% | 5986 | 10930 | 55% | MR02_MORGANTON RD #2 | 393 | 178 | 45% | 6164 | 11323 | 54% | CC27_CROSS CREEK #27 | 399 | 187 | 47% | 6351 | 11722 | 54% | CC12_CROSS CREEK #12 | 463 | 286 | 62% | 6637 | 12185 | 54% | CC34_CROSS CREEK #34 | 454 | 230 | 51% | 6867 | 12639 | 54% | CC33_CROSS CREEK #33 | 414 | 234 | 57% | 7101 | 13053 | 54% | G8D_HOPE MILLS #1A-G8 | 341 | 193 | 57% | 7294 | 13394 | 54% | G10C_STONEY POINT #1-G10 | 355 | 184 | 52% | 7478 | 13749 | 54% | G9A_HOPE MILLS #3-G9 | 447 | 239 | 53% | 7717 | 14196 | 54% | CC26_CROSS CREEK #26 | 455 | 255 | 56% | 7972 | 14651 | 54% | G8A_CUMBERLAND #4-G8 | 465 | 224 | 48% | 8196 | 15116 | 54% | AH49_ARRAN HILLS | 484 | 254 | 52% | 8450 | 15600 | 54% | CC15_CROSS CREEK #15 | 528 | 281 | 53% | 8731 | 16128 | 54% | CC21_CROSS CREEK #21 | 530 | 280 | 53% | 9011 | 16658 | 54% | LR63_LAKE RIM | 516 | 248 | 48% | 9259 | 17174 | 54% | CC14_CROSS CREEK #14 | 581 | 330 | 57% | 9589 | 17755 | 54% | EO61-1_EASTOVER #1 | 633 | 353 | 56% | 9942 | 18388 | 54% | G11A_SPRING LAKE-G11 | 685 | 381 | 56% | 10323 | 19073 | 54% | LI65_LINDEN | 545 | 340 | 62% | 10663 | 19618 | 54% | G6A_STEDMAN-G6 | 759 | 366 | 48% | 11029 | 20377 | 54% | G2E_WESTAREA-G2 | 547 | 339 | 62% | 11368 | 20924 | 54% | G2B_CROSS CREEK #22-G2 | 520 | 321 | 62% | 11689 | 21444 | 55% | G10A_STONEY POINT #2-G10 | 553 | 289 | 52% | 11978 | 21997 | 54% | G1B_JUDSON-VANDER-G1 | 692 | 373 | 54% | 12351 | 22689 | 54% | G2D_LONGHILL-G2 | 540 | 293 | 54% | 12644 | 23229 | 54% | G2A_CROSS CREEK #09-G2 | 548 | 344 | 63% | 12988 | 23777 | 55% | G3A_PEARCES MILL #2-G3 | 756 | 437 | 58% | 13425 | 24533 | 55% | G5B_CROSS CREEK #28-G5 | 600 | 291 | 49% | 13716 | 25133 | 55% | G5A_AUMAN-G5 | 626 | 313 | 50% | 14029 | 25759 | 54% | AL51_ALDERMAN | 802 | 416 | 52% | 14445 | 26561 | 54% | CL57_CLIFFDALE WEST | 749 | 386 | 52% | 14831 | 27310 | 54% | G9B_HOPE MILLS #2-G9 | 741 | 418 | 56% | 15249 | 28051 | 54% | G2C_CROSS CREEK #23-G2 | 683 | 355 | 52% | 15604 | 28734 | 54% |
---|
Steven Walker (R): Percent of votes: 45.69%, Total votes: 13130 out of 28734
Data
Precinct | Total Votes |
Votes | Percent | Cumulative | Cumulative Total | Cumulative Pct | TRANSFER | 62 | 31 | 50% | 31 | 62 | 50% | CC19_CROSS CREEK #19 | 146 | 63 | 43% | 94 | 208 | 45% | CC03_CROSS CREEK #03 | 144 | 71 | 49% | 165 | 352 | 47% | G11B_MANCHESTER-G11 | 179 | 99 | 55% | 264 | 531 | 50% | G3B_CROSS CREEK #11-G3 | 197 | 80 | 41% | 344 | 728 | 47% | G4C_PEARCES MILL #4-G4 | 171 | 72 | 42% | 416 | 899 | 46% | CC32_CROSS CREEK #32 | 210 | 101 | 48% | 517 | 1109 | 47% | CC24_CROSS CREEK #24 | 210 | 119 | 57% | 636 | 1319 | 48% | CC07_CROSS CREEK #07 | 216 | 89 | 41% | 725 | 1535 | 47% | G6B_BEAVER DAM-G6 | 248 | 133 | 54% | 858 | 1783 | 48% | CC04_CROSS CREEK #04 | 226 | 87 | 38% | 945 | 2009 | 47% | CC10_CROSS CREEK #10 | 229 | 102 | 45% | 1047 | 2238 | 47% | CC06_CROSS CREEK #06 | 255 | 117 | 46% | 1164 | 2493 | 47% | CC01_CROSS CREEK #01 | 223 | 75 | 34% | 1239 | 2716 | 46% | G7B_WADE-G7 | 280 | 142 | 51% | 1381 | 2996 | 46% | G3C_PEARCES MILL #3-G3 | 239 | 98 | 41% | 1479 | 3235 | 46% | G7A_BLACK RIVER-G7 | 315 | 147 | 47% | 1626 | 3550 | 46% | CC13_CROSS CREEK #13 | 275 | 114 | 41% | 1740 | 3825 | 45% | MB62_MONTIBELLO | 279 | 132 | 47% | 1872 | 4104 | 46% | G4A_CROSS CREEK #30-G4 | 316 | 150 | 47% | 2022 | 4420 | 46% | CC05_CROSS CREEK #05 | 277 | 119 | 43% | 2141 | 4697 | 46% | G1A_CROSS CREEK #02-G1 | 316 | 125 | 40% | 2266 | 5013 | 45% | G8B_CUMBERLAND #1A-G8 | 278 | 152 | 55% | 2418 | 5291 | 46% | G4B_CROSS CREEK #20-G4 | 390 | 182 | 47% | 2600 | 5681 | 46% | G8C_CUMBERLAND #3-G8 | 300 | 126 | 42% | 2726 | 5981 | 46% | CC31_CROSS CREEK #31 | 358 | 171 | 48% | 2897 | 6339 | 46% | CC08_CROSS CREEK #08 | 358 | 142 | 40% | 3039 | 6697 | 45% | CC29_CROSS CREEK #29 | 380 | 178 | 47% | 3217 | 7077 | 45% | CC25_CROSS CREEK #25 | 340 | 174 | 51% | 3391 | 7417 | 46% | CU02_CUMBERLAND #2 | 405 | 188 | 46% | 3579 | 7822 | 46% | G6C_CEDAR CREEK-G6 | 442 | 197 | 45% | 3776 | 8264 | 46% | CC18_CROSS CREEK #18 | 358 | 160 | 45% | 3936 | 8622 | 46% | CC16_CROSS CREEK #16 | 299 | 98 | 33% | 4034 | 8921 | 45% | G5C_BRENTWOOD-G5 | 377 | 187 | 50% | 4221 | 9298 | 45% | SH77_SHERWOOD | 409 | 173 | 42% | 4394 | 9707 | 45% | EO61-2_EASTOVER #2 | 458 | 204 | 45% | 4598 | 10165 | 45% | CC17_CROSS CREEK #17 | 386 | 195 | 51% | 4793 | 10551 | 45% | G10B_HOPE MILLS #4-G10 | 379 | 151 | 40% | 4944 | 10930 | 45% | MR02_MORGANTON RD #2 | 393 | 215 | 55% | 5159 | 11323 | 46% | CC27_CROSS CREEK #27 | 399 | 212 | 53% | 5371 | 11722 | 46% | CC12_CROSS CREEK #12 | 463 | 177 | 38% | 5548 | 12185 | 46% | CC34_CROSS CREEK #34 | 454 | 224 | 49% | 5772 | 12639 | 46% | CC33_CROSS CREEK #33 | 414 | 180 | 43% | 5952 | 13053 | 46% | G8D_HOPE MILLS #1A-G8 | 341 | 148 | 43% | 6100 | 13394 | 46% | G10C_STONEY POINT #1-G10 | 355 | 171 | 48% | 6271 | 13749 | 46% | G9A_HOPE MILLS #3-G9 | 447 | 208 | 47% | 6479 | 14196 | 46% | CC26_CROSS CREEK #26 | 455 | 200 | 44% | 6679 | 14651 | 46% | G8A_CUMBERLAND #4-G8 | 465 | 241 | 52% | 6920 | 15116 | 46% | AH49_ARRAN HILLS | 484 | 230 | 48% | 7150 | 15600 | 46% | CC15_CROSS CREEK #15 | 528 | 247 | 47% | 7397 | 16128 | 46% | CC21_CROSS CREEK #21 | 530 | 250 | 47% | 7647 | 16658 | 46% | LR63_LAKE RIM | 516 | 268 | 52% | 7915 | 17174 | 46% | CC14_CROSS CREEK #14 | 581 | 251 | 43% | 8166 | 17755 | 46% | EO61-1_EASTOVER #1 | 633 | 280 | 44% | 8446 | 18388 | 46% | G11A_SPRING LAKE-G11 | 685 | 304 | 44% | 8750 | 19073 | 46% | LI65_LINDEN | 545 | 205 | 38% | 8955 | 19618 | 46% | G6A_STEDMAN-G6 | 759 | 393 | 52% | 9348 | 20377 | 46% | G2E_WESTAREA-G2 | 547 | 208 | 38% | 9556 | 20924 | 46% | G2B_CROSS CREEK #22-G2 | 520 | 199 | 38% | 9755 | 21444 | 45% | G10A_STONEY POINT #2-G10 | 553 | 264 | 48% | 10019 | 21997 | 46% | G1B_JUDSON-VANDER-G1 | 692 | 319 | 46% | 10338 | 22689 | 46% | G2D_LONGHILL-G2 | 540 | 247 | 46% | 10585 | 23229 | 46% | G2A_CROSS CREEK #09-G2 | 548 | 204 | 37% | 10789 | 23777 | 45% | G3A_PEARCES MILL #2-G3 | 756 | 319 | 42% | 11108 | 24533 | 45% | G5B_CROSS CREEK #28-G5 | 600 | 309 | 52% | 11417 | 25133 | 45% | G5A_AUMAN-G5 | 626 | 313 | 50% | 11730 | 25759 | 46% | AL51_ALDERMAN | 802 | 386 | 48% | 12116 | 26561 | 46% | CL57_CLIFFDALE WEST | 749 | 363 | 48% | 12479 | 27310 | 46% | G9B_HOPE MILLS #2-G9 | 741 | 323 | 44% | 12802 | 28051 | 46% | G2C_CROSS CREEK #23-G2 | 683 | 328 | 48% | 13130 | 28734 | 46% |
---|