North Carolina
ELECTION DAY votes from Orange County.
Precincts added in order of number of votes.
Voters: 15404 Precincts: 51 Average votes per precinct: 302 Votes in median precinct: 349Registered Republicans: 14.9% Registered Democrats: 48.6%
Voting Machine:
deltaM = 15%deltaMxV = 2,307
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Note: X/Y graph display only works for all votes, sorted by precinct size (number of votes)
These graphs show each candidate's CUMULATIVE percent of the vote for all points to the left of and including each precinct. As you move to the right, the results from more and more precincts are included. If you choose "ALL" votes, the points at the far right of the graph represent the outcome of the election.
In order to get a sense of what might be expected if there is no strong correlation between precinct size and political leaning, select "Count votes: In random order". Each time you redraw the graph you will see cumulative totals for randomly sorted precincts.
Benford's Law Analysis
This analysis compares the expected statistical distribution of the left-most digit of the vote count of each precinct to what would be expected for randomly distributed vote counts. It is a method used by forensic accountants to detect possible fraud. There is controversy about whether this law can be applied to elections, but we thought we would have a look at it anyway. Read more here.
NOTE: We show this analysis when there are 50 or more precincts in the set. Some argue that this analysis is best used with sets containing approximately 500 data points or more. Additionally, it is likely to fail if there are a great many precincts of approximately the same size.
NOTE: We show this analysis when there are 50 or more precincts in the set. Some argue that this analysis is best used with sets containing approximately 500 data points or more. Additionally, it is likely to fail if there are a great many precincts of approximately the same size.
Expected Benford's Law Distribution
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
Leftmost Digit of Vote Count - Frequency of Occurrence
Benford's Law Distribution for Michael R. (Mike) Morgan
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
Leftmost Digit of Vote Count - Frequency of Occurance
Benford's Law Distribution for Robert H. (Bob) Edmunds
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
Leftmost Digit of Vote Count - Frequency of Occurance
Show Data
| Leftmost Digit | Expected Distribution | Michael R. (Mike) Morgan | Robert H. (Bob) Edmunds |
| 1 | 30.1% | 47.7% | 34.1% |
| 2 | 17.6% | 38.6% | 11.4% |
| 3 | 12.5% | 6.8% | 11.4% |
| 4 | 9.7% | 2.3% | 9.1% |
| 5 | 7.9% | 0% | 4.5% |
| 6 | 6.7% | 0% | 6.8% |
| 7 | 5.8% | 0% | 4.5% |
| 8 | 5.1% | 4.5% | 11.4% |
| 9 | 4.6% | 0% | 6.8% |
Detailed Data
Download graph dataMichael R. (Mike) Morgan (D): Percent of votes: 58.26%, Total votes: 8974 out of 15404
Data
| Precinct | Registrations | Total Votes |
Votes | Percent | Election Day Turnout |
Reg. Rep | Reg. Dem | White | Black | H_HILLSBOROUGH | 1052 | 118 | 80 | 68% | 11% | 9% | 64% | 79% | 17% | BP_BATTLE PARK | 1154 | 131 | 80 | 61% | 11% | 10% | 47% | 80% | 6% | WW_WESTWOOD | 1957 | 186 | 131 | 70% | 10% | 13% | 48% | 79% | 6% | NC_NORTH CARRBORO | 2482 | 188 | 124 | 66% | 8% | 9% | 56% | 87% | 1% | TH_TOWN HALL | 2381 | 196 | 150 | 77% | 8% | 4% | 59% | 72% | 13% | CC_COUNTRY CLUB | 2925 | 197 | 119 | 60% | 7% | 11% | 31% | 54% | 9% | GR_GREENWOOD | 2883 | 206 | 142 | 69% | 7% | 11% | 42% | 67% | 7% | CB_CARRBORO | 1854 | 207 | 164 | 79% | 11% | 4% | 59% | 83% | 5% | EA_EAST FRANKLIN | 3312 | 218 | 139 | 64% | 7% | 14% | 38% | 71% | 5% | CH_COKER HILLS | 1321 | 227 | 158 | 70% | 17% | 8% | 54% | 80% | 7% | CS1_COLES STORE | 1722 | 239 | 103 | 43% | 14% | 22% | 47% | 90% | 4% | LI_LINCOLN | 3176 | 261 | 179 | 69% | 8% | 15% | 38% | 67% | 11% | EH_ESTES HILLS | 2529 | 265 | 176 | 66% | 10% | 8% | 51% | 75% | 7% | WDS_WEAVER DAIRY SAT | 469 | 265 | 224 | 85% | 57% | 5% | 78% | 97% | 1% | CO_COLONIAL HEIGHTS | 3267 | 276 | 194 | 70% | 8% | 9% | 51% | 69% | 12% | ES_EASTSIDE | 1788 | 284 | 185 | 65% | 16% | 9% | 53% | 70% | 11% | KM_KINGS MILL | 2241 | 288 | 175 | 61% | 13% | 12% | 51% | 85% | 5% | WD_WEAVER DAIRY | 3117 | 293 | 183 | 62% | 9% | 11% | 51% | 71% | 11% | CA_CARR | 1124 | 296 | 157 | 53% | 26% | 29% | 42% | 70% | 24% | DM_DAMASCUS | 3035 | 315 | 222 | 70% | 10% | 10% | 50% | 77% | 9% | MF_MASON FARM | 4271 | 320 | 233 | 73% | 7% | 11% | 36% | 51% | 17% | EF_EFLAND | 2066 | 331 | 157 | 47% | 16% | 25% | 43% | 80% | 14% | BC_BOOKER CREEK | 2264 | 346 | 224 | 65% | 15% | 12% | 47% | 71% | 11% | OW_OWASA | 3169 | 349 | 247 | 71% | 11% | 7% | 52% | 64% | 17% | LC_LIONS CLUB | 3105 | 353 | 260 | 74% | 11% | 6% | 53% | 72% | 14% | SJ_ST JOHN | 2983 | 365 | 227 | 62% | 12% | 12% | 59% | 73% | 18% | NS_NORTHSIDE | 3937 | 371 | 282 | 76% | 9% | 11% | 43% | 65% | 14% | WH_WEST HILLSBOROUGH | 2813 | 372 | 229 | 62% | 13% | 12% | 61% | 50% | 42% | CG_CEDAR GROVE | 1576 | 375 | 175 | 47% | 24% | 25% | 42% | 79% | 16% | RF_RIDGEFIELD | 2267 | 382 | 264 | 69% | 17% | 11% | 53% | 77% | 10% | GL_GLENWOOD | 2557 | 394 | 234 | 59% | 15% | 16% | 43% | 80% | 4% | TO_TOLARS | 1467 | 399 | 171 | 43% | 27% | 22% | 50% | 71% | 24% | CF_CEDAR FALLS | 2548 | 404 | 224 | 55% | 16% | 12% | 42% | 65% | 8% | DA_DOGWOOD ACRES | 3229 | 408 | 268 | 66% | 13% | 12% | 48% | 82% | 4% | CP_CAMERON PARK | 3203 | 410 | 193 | 47% | 13% | 24% | 44% | 83% | 10% | PA_PATTERSON | 4882 | 413 | 235 | 57% | 8% | 16% | 46% | 74% | 6% | WC_WHITE CROSS | 1838 | 444 | 213 | 48% | 24% | 17% | 51% | 76% | 16% | HF_HOGAN FARMS | 3854 | 489 | 311 | 64% | 13% | 11% | 49% | 72% | 13% | SM_ST MARYS | 2755 | 526 | 188 | 36% | 19% | 29% | 37% | 87% | 7% | ENO_ENO | 2762 | 548 | 221 | 40% | 20% | 28% | 40% | 83% | 8% | GB_GRADY BROWN | 3928 | 554 | 317 | 57% | 14% | 21% | 41% | 78% | 12% | CX_CHEEKS | 4313 | 665 | 340 | 51% | 14% | 21% | 41% | 78% | 12% | CW_CALDWELL | 2775 | 757 | 273 | 36% | 27% | 34% | 36% | 88% | 7% | OG_ORANGE GROVE | 3532 | 773 | 403 | 52% | 22% | 19% | 46% | 86% | 7% |
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Robert H. (Bob) Edmunds (R): Percent of votes: 41.74%, Total votes: 6430 out of 15404
Data
| Precinct | Registrations | Total Votes |
Votes | Percent | Election Day Turnout |
Reg. Rep | Reg. Dem | White | Black | H_HILLSBOROUGH | 1052 | 118 | 38 | 32% | 11% | 9% | 64% | 79% | 17% | BP_BATTLE PARK | 1154 | 131 | 51 | 39% | 11% | 10% | 47% | 80% | 6% | WW_WESTWOOD | 1957 | 186 | 55 | 30% | 10% | 13% | 48% | 79% | 6% | NC_NORTH CARRBORO | 2482 | 188 | 64 | 34% | 8% | 9% | 56% | 87% | 1% | TH_TOWN HALL | 2381 | 196 | 46 | 23% | 8% | 4% | 59% | 72% | 13% | CC_COUNTRY CLUB | 2925 | 197 | 78 | 40% | 7% | 11% | 31% | 54% | 9% | GR_GREENWOOD | 2883 | 206 | 64 | 31% | 7% | 11% | 42% | 67% | 7% | CB_CARRBORO | 1854 | 207 | 43 | 21% | 11% | 4% | 59% | 83% | 5% | EA_EAST FRANKLIN | 3312 | 218 | 79 | 36% | 7% | 14% | 38% | 71% | 5% | CH_COKER HILLS | 1321 | 227 | 69 | 30% | 17% | 8% | 54% | 80% | 7% | CS1_COLES STORE | 1722 | 239 | 136 | 57% | 14% | 22% | 47% | 90% | 4% | LI_LINCOLN | 3176 | 261 | 82 | 31% | 8% | 15% | 38% | 67% | 11% | EH_ESTES HILLS | 2529 | 265 | 89 | 34% | 10% | 8% | 51% | 75% | 7% | WDS_WEAVER DAIRY SAT | 469 | 265 | 41 | 15% | 57% | 5% | 78% | 97% | 1% | CO_COLONIAL HEIGHTS | 3267 | 276 | 82 | 30% | 8% | 9% | 51% | 69% | 12% | ES_EASTSIDE | 1788 | 284 | 99 | 35% | 16% | 9% | 53% | 70% | 11% | KM_KINGS MILL | 2241 | 288 | 113 | 39% | 13% | 12% | 51% | 85% | 5% | WD_WEAVER DAIRY | 3117 | 293 | 110 | 38% | 9% | 11% | 51% | 71% | 11% | CA_CARR | 1124 | 296 | 139 | 47% | 26% | 29% | 42% | 70% | 24% | DM_DAMASCUS | 3035 | 315 | 93 | 30% | 10% | 10% | 50% | 77% | 9% | MF_MASON FARM | 4271 | 320 | 87 | 27% | 7% | 11% | 36% | 51% | 17% | EF_EFLAND | 2066 | 331 | 174 | 53% | 16% | 25% | 43% | 80% | 14% | BC_BOOKER CREEK | 2264 | 346 | 122 | 35% | 15% | 12% | 47% | 71% | 11% | OW_OWASA | 3169 | 349 | 102 | 29% | 11% | 7% | 52% | 64% | 17% | LC_LIONS CLUB | 3105 | 353 | 93 | 26% | 11% | 6% | 53% | 72% | 14% | SJ_ST JOHN | 2983 | 365 | 138 | 38% | 12% | 12% | 59% | 73% | 18% | NS_NORTHSIDE | 3937 | 371 | 89 | 24% | 9% | 11% | 43% | 65% | 14% | WH_WEST HILLSBOROUGH | 2813 | 372 | 143 | 38% | 13% | 12% | 61% | 50% | 42% | CG_CEDAR GROVE | 1576 | 375 | 200 | 53% | 24% | 25% | 42% | 79% | 16% | RF_RIDGEFIELD | 2267 | 382 | 118 | 31% | 17% | 11% | 53% | 77% | 10% | GL_GLENWOOD | 2557 | 394 | 160 | 41% | 15% | 16% | 43% | 80% | 4% | TO_TOLARS | 1467 | 399 | 228 | 57% | 27% | 22% | 50% | 71% | 24% | CF_CEDAR FALLS | 2548 | 404 | 180 | 45% | 16% | 12% | 42% | 65% | 8% | DA_DOGWOOD ACRES | 3229 | 408 | 140 | 34% | 13% | 12% | 48% | 82% | 4% | CP_CAMERON PARK | 3203 | 410 | 217 | 53% | 13% | 24% | 44% | 83% | 10% | PA_PATTERSON | 4882 | 413 | 178 | 43% | 8% | 16% | 46% | 74% | 6% | WC_WHITE CROSS | 1838 | 444 | 231 | 52% | 24% | 17% | 51% | 76% | 16% | HF_HOGAN FARMS | 3854 | 489 | 178 | 36% | 13% | 11% | 49% | 72% | 13% | SM_ST MARYS | 2755 | 526 | 338 | 64% | 19% | 29% | 37% | 87% | 7% | ENO_ENO | 2762 | 548 | 327 | 60% | 20% | 28% | 40% | 83% | 8% | GB_GRADY BROWN | 3928 | 554 | 237 | 43% | 14% | 21% | 41% | 78% | 12% | CX_CHEEKS | 6135 | 665 | 325 | 49% | 14% | 21% | 41% | 78% | 12% | CW_CALDWELL | 2775 | 757 | 484 | 64% | 27% | 34% | 36% | 88% | 7% | OG_ORANGE GROVE | 3532 | 773 | 370 | 48% | 22% | 19% | 46% | 86% | 7% |
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