North Carolina
ELECTION DAY votes from Buncombe County.
Precincts added in order of number of votes.
Voters: 14547 Precincts: 67 Average votes per precinct: 217 Votes in median precinct: 385Registered Republicans: 20.4% Registered Democrats: 42.6%  
Voting Machine:
deltaM = -5.8%deltaMxV = -849
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Note: X/Y graph display only works for all votes, sorted by precinct size (number of votes)
These graphs show each candidate's CUMULATIVE percent of the vote for all points to the left of and including each precinct. As you move to the right, the results from more and more precincts are included. If you choose "ALL" votes, the points at the far right of the graph represent the outcome of the election.
In order to get a sense of what might be expected if there is no strong correlation between precinct size and political leaning, select "Count votes: In random order". Each time you redraw the graph you will see cumulative totals for randomly sorted precincts.
Benford's Law Analysis
This analysis compares the expected statistical distribution of the left-most digit of the vote count of each precinct to what would be expected for randomly distributed vote counts. It is a method used by forensic accountants to detect possible fraud. There is controversy about whether this law can be applied to elections, but we thought we would have a look at it anyway. Read more here.
NOTE: We show this analysis when there are 50 or more precincts in the set. Some argue that this analysis is best used with sets containing approximately 500 data points or more. Additionally, it is likely to fail if there are a great many precincts of approximately the same size.
NOTE: We show this analysis when there are 50 or more precincts in the set. Some argue that this analysis is best used with sets containing approximately 500 data points or more. Additionally, it is likely to fail if there are a great many precincts of approximately the same size.
Expected Benford's Law Distribution
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
Leftmost Digit of Vote Count - Frequency of Occurrence
Benford's Law Distribution for Andy Millard
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
Leftmost Digit of Vote Count - Frequency of Occurance
Benford's Law Distribution for Patrick McHenry
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
Leftmost Digit of Vote Count - Frequency of Occurance
Show Data
Leftmost Digit | Expected Distribution | Andy Millard | Patrick McHenry |
1 | 30.1% | 50% | 34.1% |
2 | 17.6% | 27.3% | 31.8% |
3 | 12.5% | 11.4% | 9.1% |
4 | 9.7% | 0% | 2.3% |
5 | 7.9% | 4.5% | 6.8% |
6 | 6.7% | 2.3% | 2.3% |
7 | 5.8% | 0% | 4.5% |
8 | 5.1% | 2.3% | 6.8% |
9 | 4.6% | 2.3% | 2.3% |
Detailed Data
Download graph dataAndy Millard (D): Percent of votes: 52.92%, Total votes: 7698 out of 14547
Data
Precinct | Registrations | Total Votes |
Votes | Percent | Election Day Turnout |
Reg. Rep | Reg. Dem | White | Black | 23.2_THE CHURCH AT ASHEVILLE | 556 | 44 | 23 | 52% | 8% | 23% | 43% | 94% | 1% | 27.2_BEAVERDAM COMMUNITY CENTER | 828 | 101 | 50 | 50% | 12% | 15% | 45% | 94% | 1% | 20.1_BOARD OF ELECTIONS OFFICE | 1154 | 157 | 113 | 72% | 14% | 10% | 50% | 81% | 10% | 23.3_EVERGREEN CHARTER SCHOOL | 987 | 191 | 86 | 45% | 19% | 24% | 44% | 94% | 2% | 19.1_SKYLAND FIRE DEPARTMENT | 1467 | 189 | 104 | 55% | 13% | 23% | 38% | 78% | 12% | 60.4_ABIDING SAVIOR LUTHERAN CHURCH | 1527 | 195 | 66 | 34% | 13% | 27% | 38% | 93% | 1% | 34.1_LAKE TOMAHAWK | 1256 | 231 | 105 | 45% | 18% | 22% | 43% | 94% | 2% | 33.2_BLACK MOUNTAIN PRIMARY SCHOOL | 1341 | 227 | 91 | 40% | 17% | 27% | 38% | 90% | 3% | 39.2_FAIRVIEW VOLUNTEER FIRE DEPT | 1628 | 257 | 109 | 42% | 16% | 29% | 35% | 93% | 1% | 11.1_ASHEVILLE SENIOR OPPORTUNITY CENTER | 1932 | 252 | 214 | 85% | 13% | 7% | 52% | 62% | 25% | 60.2_REYNOLDS FIRE DEPARTMENT | 1474 | 247 | 120 | 49% | 17% | 22% | 36% | 88% | 4% | 06.1_TRINITY PRESBYTERIAN CHURCH | 1530 | 275 | 167 | 61% | 18% | 15% | 51% | 87% | 6% | 17.1_BETH ISRAEL SYNAGOGUE | 1868 | 249 | 175 | 70% | 13% | 11% | 46% | 89% | 4% | 66.1_BEE TREE FIRE DEPARTMENT | 1914 | 268 | 112 | 42% | 14% | 24% | 41% | 86% | 4% | 10.1_DR WESLEY GRANT SR SOUTHSIDE CENTER | 1755 | 272 | 245 | 90% | 15% | 5% | 67% | 40% | 52% | 35.1_CARVER COMMUNITY CENTER | 1803 | 242 | 107 | 44% | 13% | 21% | 47% | 86% | 8% | 28.1_COVENANT REFORMED PRESBYTERIAN | 3133 | 268 | 197 | 74% | 9% | 8% | 46% | 82% | 4% | 01.1_STEPHENS LEE COMMUNITY CENTER | 2213 | 312 | 251 | 80% | 14% | 8% | 53% | 70% | 20% | 38.2_CANE CREEK MIDDLE SCHOOL | 1747 | 319 | 59 | 18% | 18% | 38% | 27% | 94% | 1% | 56.2_ARDEN FIRST BAPTIST CHURCH | 2254 | 326 | 133 | 41% | 14% | 28% | 36% | 90% | 4% | 32.1_OWEN MIDDLE SCHOOL | 2060 | 348 | 116 | 33% | 17% | 30% | 34% | 93% | 2% | 33.3_BLACK MOUNTAIN ELEMENTARY SCHOOL | 2090 | 364 | 148 | 41% | 17% | 27% | 39% | 89% | 5% | 36.1_MONTREAT CONFERENCE CENTER - WALKUP BUILDING | 1979 | 335 | 119 | 36% | 17% | 30% | 34% | 93% | 2% | 37.1_GARREN CREEK FIRE DEPARTMENT | 1415 | 385 | 117 | 30% | 27% | 31% | 30% | 94% | 0% | 14.2_ASHEVILLE CITY PRE-SCHOOL | 2487 | 361 | 263 | 73% | 15% | 11% | 49% | 74% | 16% | 39.3_FAIRVIEW COMMUNITY CENTER | 2585 | 342 | 108 | 32% | 13% | 32% | 32% | 93% | 1% | 22.2_IRA B JONES SCHOOL AUDITORIUM | 2341 | 321 | 181 | 56% | 14% | 17% | 49% | 93% | 1% | 64.1_FIRST BAPTIST OF SWANNANOA | 2087 | 410 | 159 | 39% | 20% | 29% | 34% | 90% | 4% | 07.1_KENILWORTH PRESBYTERIAN CHURCH | 1984 | 395 | 306 | 77% | 20% | 9% | 54% | 84% | 9% | 65.1_WD WILLIAMS ELEMENTARY | 3322 | 280 | 192 | 69% | 8% | 25% | 39% | 90% | 2% | 08.2_SHILOH COMMUNITY CENTER | 2805 | 461 | 263 | 57% | 16% | 16% | 50% | 65% | 26% | 12.1_HALL FLETCHER SCHOOL | 2303 | 461 | 334 | 72% | 20% | 7% | 51% | 85% | 4% | 03.1_ST MARKS LUTHERAN CHURCH | 2764 | 376 | 326 | 87% | 14% | 6% | 51% | 82% | 9% | 02.1_WILLIAM RANDOLPH SCHOOL | 3634 | 391 | 335 | 86% | 11% | 4% | 56% | 69% | 21% | 25.1_CHARLES C BELL SCHOOL | 2621 | 442 | 229 | 52% | 17% | 18% | 43% | 84% | 8% | 29.2_NEW HOPE PRESBYTERIAN | 3127 | 313 | 151 | 48% | 10% | 25% | 38% | 87% | 6% | 08.3_FAITH TABERNACLE CHRISTIAN CENTER | 2689 | 401 | 291 | 73% | 15% | 16% | 50% | 67% | 25% | 62.1_GRASSY BRANCH BAPTIST | 2532 | 436 | 205 | 47% | 17% | 24% | 40% | 90% | 3% | 61.1_RICEVILLE COMMUNITY CENTER | 2450 | 484 | 209 | 43% | 20% | 28% | 37% | 94% | 1% | 57.1_SKYLAND FIRE DEPARTMENT BISHOP SUBSTATION | 2953 | 483 | 132 | 27% | 16% | 35% | 29% | 91% | 3% | 21.1_HAW CREEK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL | 2741 | 503 | 285 | 57% | 18% | 18% | 49% | 82% | 12% | 38.3_TRINITY OF FAIRVIEW CHURCH | 3343 | 517 | 131 | 25% | 15% | 36% | 29% | 91% | 3% | 55.1_GLEN ARDEN SCHOOL | 3240 | 540 | 201 | 37% | 17% | 32% | 32% | 88% | 6% | 09.1_MURPHY-OAKLEY COMMUNITY CENTER | 3659 | 576 | 370 | 64% | 16% | 15% | 47% | 79% | 12% |
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Patrick McHenry (R): Percent of votes: 47.08%, Total votes: 6849 out of 14547
Data
Precinct | Registrations | Total Votes |
Votes | Percent | Election Day Turnout |
Reg. Rep | Reg. Dem | White | Black | 23.2_THE CHURCH AT ASHEVILLE | 556 | 44 | 21 | 48% | 8% | 23% | 43% | 94% | 1% | 27.2_BEAVERDAM COMMUNITY CENTER | 828 | 101 | 51 | 50% | 12% | 15% | 45% | 94% | 1% | 20.1_BOARD OF ELECTIONS OFFICE | 1154 | 157 | 44 | 28% | 14% | 10% | 50% | 81% | 10% | 23.3_EVERGREEN CHARTER SCHOOL | 987 | 191 | 105 | 55% | 19% | 24% | 44% | 94% | 2% | 19.1_SKYLAND FIRE DEPARTMENT | 1467 | 189 | 85 | 45% | 13% | 23% | 38% | 78% | 12% | 60.4_ABIDING SAVIOR LUTHERAN CHURCH | 1527 | 195 | 129 | 66% | 13% | 27% | 38% | 93% | 1% | 34.1_LAKE TOMAHAWK | 1256 | 231 | 126 | 55% | 18% | 22% | 43% | 94% | 2% | 33.2_BLACK MOUNTAIN PRIMARY SCHOOL | 1341 | 227 | 136 | 60% | 17% | 27% | 38% | 90% | 3% | 39.2_FAIRVIEW VOLUNTEER FIRE DEPT | 1628 | 257 | 148 | 58% | 16% | 29% | 35% | 93% | 1% | 11.1_ASHEVILLE SENIOR OPPORTUNITY CENTER | 1932 | 252 | 38 | 15% | 13% | 7% | 52% | 62% | 25% | 60.2_REYNOLDS FIRE DEPARTMENT | 1474 | 247 | 127 | 51% | 17% | 22% | 36% | 88% | 4% | 06.1_TRINITY PRESBYTERIAN CHURCH | 1530 | 275 | 108 | 39% | 18% | 15% | 51% | 87% | 6% | 17.1_BETH ISRAEL SYNAGOGUE | 1868 | 249 | 74 | 30% | 13% | 11% | 46% | 89% | 4% | 66.1_BEE TREE FIRE DEPARTMENT | 1914 | 268 | 156 | 58% | 14% | 24% | 41% | 86% | 4% | 10.1_DR WESLEY GRANT SR SOUTHSIDE CENTER | 1755 | 272 | 27 | 10% | 15% | 5% | 67% | 40% | 52% | 35.1_CARVER COMMUNITY CENTER | 1803 | 242 | 135 | 56% | 13% | 21% | 47% | 86% | 8% | 28.1_COVENANT REFORMED PRESBYTERIAN | 3133 | 268 | 71 | 26% | 9% | 8% | 46% | 82% | 4% | 01.1_STEPHENS LEE COMMUNITY CENTER | 2213 | 312 | 61 | 20% | 14% | 8% | 53% | 70% | 20% | 38.2_CANE CREEK MIDDLE SCHOOL | 1747 | 319 | 260 | 82% | 18% | 38% | 27% | 94% | 1% | 56.2_ARDEN FIRST BAPTIST CHURCH | 2254 | 326 | 193 | 59% | 14% | 28% | 36% | 90% | 4% | 32.1_OWEN MIDDLE SCHOOL | 2060 | 348 | 232 | 67% | 17% | 30% | 34% | 93% | 2% | 33.3_BLACK MOUNTAIN ELEMENTARY SCHOOL | 2090 | 364 | 216 | 59% | 17% | 27% | 39% | 89% | 5% | 36.1_MONTREAT CONFERENCE CENTER - WALKUP BUILDING | 1979 | 335 | 216 | 64% | 17% | 30% | 34% | 93% | 2% | 37.1_GARREN CREEK FIRE DEPARTMENT | 1415 | 385 | 268 | 70% | 27% | 31% | 30% | 94% | 0% | 14.2_ASHEVILLE CITY PRE-SCHOOL | 2487 | 361 | 98 | 27% | 15% | 11% | 49% | 74% | 16% | 39.3_FAIRVIEW COMMUNITY CENTER | 2585 | 342 | 234 | 68% | 13% | 32% | 32% | 93% | 1% | 22.2_IRA B JONES SCHOOL AUDITORIUM | 2341 | 321 | 140 | 44% | 14% | 17% | 49% | 93% | 1% | 64.1_FIRST BAPTIST OF SWANNANOA | 2087 | 410 | 251 | 61% | 20% | 29% | 34% | 90% | 4% | 07.1_KENILWORTH PRESBYTERIAN CHURCH | 1984 | 395 | 89 | 23% | 20% | 9% | 54% | 84% | 9% | 12.1_HALL FLETCHER SCHOOL | 2303 | 280 | 88 | 31% | 12% | 7% | 51% | 85% | 4% | 65.1_WD WILLIAMS ELEMENTARY | 3322 | 461 | 198 | 43% | 14% | 25% | 39% | 90% | 2% | 08.2_SHILOH COMMUNITY CENTER | 2805 | 461 | 127 | 28% | 16% | 16% | 50% | 65% | 26% | 03.1_ST MARKS LUTHERAN CHURCH | 2764 | 376 | 50 | 13% | 14% | 6% | 51% | 82% | 9% | 02.1_WILLIAM RANDOLPH SCHOOL | 3634 | 391 | 56 | 14% | 11% | 4% | 56% | 69% | 21% | 25.1_CHARLES C BELL SCHOOL | 2621 | 442 | 213 | 48% | 17% | 18% | 43% | 84% | 8% | 29.2_NEW HOPE PRESBYTERIAN | 3127 | 313 | 162 | 52% | 10% | 25% | 38% | 87% | 6% | 08.3_FAITH TABERNACLE CHRISTIAN CENTER | 2689 | 401 | 110 | 27% | 15% | 16% | 50% | 67% | 25% | 62.1_GRASSY BRANCH BAPTIST | 2532 | 436 | 231 | 53% | 17% | 24% | 40% | 90% | 3% | 61.1_RICEVILLE COMMUNITY CENTER | 2450 | 484 | 275 | 57% | 20% | 28% | 37% | 94% | 1% | 57.1_SKYLAND FIRE DEPARTMENT BISHOP SUBSTATION | 2953 | 483 | 351 | 73% | 16% | 35% | 29% | 91% | 3% | 21.1_HAW CREEK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL | 2741 | 503 | 218 | 43% | 18% | 18% | 49% | 82% | 12% | 38.3_TRINITY OF FAIRVIEW CHURCH | 3343 | 517 | 386 | 75% | 15% | 36% | 29% | 91% | 3% | 55.1_GLEN ARDEN SCHOOL | 3240 | 540 | 339 | 63% | 17% | 32% | 32% | 88% | 6% | 09.1_MURPHY-OAKLEY COMMUNITY CENTER | 3659 | 576 | 206 | 36% | 16% | 15% | 47% | 79% | 12% |
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