North Carolina
ELECTION DAY votes from Gaston County.
Precincts added in order of number of votes.
Voters: 25542 Precincts: 55 Average votes per precinct: 464 Votes in median precinct: 551Registered Republicans: 39.4% Registered Democrats: 33.2%
Voting Machine:
deltaM = 13%deltaMxV = 3,333
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Options:
Note: X/Y graph display only works for all votes, sorted by precinct size (number of votes)
These graphs show each candidate's CUMULATIVE percent of the vote for all points to the left of and including each precinct. As you move to the right, the results from more and more precincts are included. If you choose "ALL" votes, the points at the far right of the graph represent the outcome of the election.
In order to get a sense of what might be expected if there is no strong correlation between precinct size and political leaning, select "Count votes: In random order". Each time you redraw the graph you will see cumulative totals for randomly sorted precincts.
Benford's Law Analysis
This analysis compares the expected statistical distribution of the left-most digit of the vote count of each precinct to what would be expected for randomly distributed vote counts. It is a method used by forensic accountants to detect possible fraud. There is controversy about whether this law can be applied to elections, but we thought we would have a look at it anyway. Read more here.
NOTE: We show this analysis when there are 50 or more precincts in the set. Some argue that this analysis is best used with sets containing approximately 500 data points or more. Additionally, it is likely to fail if there are a great many precincts of approximately the same size.
NOTE: We show this analysis when there are 50 or more precincts in the set. Some argue that this analysis is best used with sets containing approximately 500 data points or more. Additionally, it is likely to fail if there are a great many precincts of approximately the same size.
Expected Benford's Law Distribution
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
Leftmost Digit of Vote Count - Frequency of Occurrence
Benford's Law Distribution for Patrick McHenry
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
Leftmost Digit of Vote Count - Frequency of Occurance
Benford's Law Distribution for Andy Millard
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
Leftmost Digit of Vote Count - Frequency of Occurance
Show Data
| Leftmost Digit | Expected Distribution | Patrick McHenry | Andy Millard |
| 1 | 30.1% | 19.6% | 47.8% |
| 2 | 17.6% | 13% | 30.4% |
| 3 | 12.5% | 19.6% | 2.2% |
| 4 | 9.7% | 17.4% | 0% |
| 5 | 7.9% | 10.9% | 2.2% |
| 6 | 6.7% | 15.2% | 4.3% |
| 7 | 5.8% | 4.3% | 4.3% |
| 8 | 5.1% | 0% | 0% |
| 9 | 4.6% | 0% | 8.7% |
Detailed Data
Download graph dataPatrick McHenry (R): Percent of votes: 69.67%, Total votes: 17794 out of 25542
Data
| Precinct | Registrations | Total Votes |
Votes | Percent | Election Day Turnout |
Reg. Rep | Reg. Dem | White | Black | 01_YORK CHESTER | 1304 | 213 | 115 | 54% | 16% | 29% | 38% | 75% | 17% | 07_HIGHLAND | 1314 | 220 | 13 | 6% | 17% | 4% | 79% | 11% | 83% | 14_GARDNER PARK | 1153 | 245 | 183 | 75% | 21% | 42% | 30% | 85% | 9% | 11_ARMSTRONG | 1913 | 293 | 124 | 42% | 15% | 21% | 50% | 54% | 38% | 08_WOODHILL | 1816 | 298 | 114 | 38% | 16% | 17% | 57% | 42% | 50% | 09_GRIER | 2108 | 302 | 161 | 53% | 14% | 28% | 44% | 59% | 32% | 06_MYRTLE | 2046 | 319 | 77 | 24% | 16% | 13% | 66% | 30% | 62% | 35_CHERRYVILLE #1 | 1652 | 333 | 259 | 78% | 20% | 37% | 34% | 86% | 11% | 33_TRYON | 2139 | 343 | 282 | 82% | 16% | 43% | 24% | 90% | 7% | 05_HEALTH CENTER | 2742 | 348 | 115 | 33% | 13% | 18% | 57% | 42% | 52% | 03_PLEASANT RIDGE | 2225 | 373 | 140 | 38% | 17% | 20% | 54% | 46% | 47% | 37_CHERRYVILLE #3 | 1500 | 374 | 277 | 74% | 25% | 37% | 36% | 86% | 11% | 10_SHERWOOD | 2766 | 385 | 221 | 57% | 14% | 34% | 40% | 69% | 24% | 41_DALLAS #2 | 3269 | 402 | 294 | 73% | 12% | 40% | 27% | 86% | 9% | 38_HIGH SHOALS | 2850 | 413 | 357 | 86% | 14% | 48% | 23% | 94% | 3% | 02_VICTORY | 2536 | 433 | 192 | 44% | 17% | 22% | 51% | 51% | 40% | 25_BELMONT #3 | 2173 | 446 | 352 | 79% | 21% | 41% | 25% | 86% | 6% | 21_BESSEMER CITY #2 | 2381 | 461 | 292 | 63% | 19% | 33% | 40% | 67% | 27% | 34_LANDERS CHAPEL | 2249 | 476 | 399 | 84% | 21% | 42% | 25% | 92% | 4% | 30_MCADENVILLE | 2226 | 526 | 394 | 75% | 24% | 40% | 26% | 89% | 6% | 26_CATAWBA HEIGHTS | 2845 | 532 | 367 | 69% | 19% | 38% | 26% | 83% | 8% | 40_DALLAS #1 | 4532 | 533 | 367 | 69% | 12% | 40% | 31% | 78% | 17% | 12_FLINT GROVES | 3106 | 538 | 368 | 68% | 17% | 37% | 34% | 79% | 15% | 45_MOUNT HOLLY #1 | 3510 | 543 | 336 | 62% | 15% | 33% | 33% | 74% | 19% | 36_CHERRYVILLE #2 | 3037 | 551 | 452 | 82% | 18% | 38% | 32% | 90% | 5% | 17_ROBINSON #2 | 4148 | 562 | 357 | 64% | 14% | 39% | 33% | 72% | 21% | 31_UNION | 3274 | 610 | 491 | 80% | 19% | 47% | 25% | 89% | 7% | 16_GASTON DAY | 4074 | 612 | 468 | 76% | 15% | 47% | 26% | 84% | 10% | 13_RANLO | 2627 | 620 | 443 | 71% | 24% | 37% | 32% | 77% | 15% | 20_BESSEMER CITY #1 | 3490 | 640 | 493 | 77% | 18% | 41% | 28% | 85% | 11% | 42_LUCIA | 2344 | 640 | 510 | 80% | 27% | 46% | 23% | 88% | 6% | 24_BELMONT #2 | 2804 | 653 | 448 | 69% | 23% | 34% | 33% | 80% | 12% | 46_MOUNT HOLLY #2 | 4898 | 668 | 469 | 70% | 14% | 44% | 24% | 87% | 7% | 19_SOUTH GASTONIA | 4851 | 700 | 485 | 69% | 14% | 39% | 32% | 77% | 17% | 32_LOWELL | 2423 | 704 | 535 | 76% | 29% | 38% | 28% | 84% | 10% | 29_NEW HOPE | 3735 | 722 | 597 | 83% | 19% | 47% | 22% | 89% | 6% | 43_STANLEY #1 | 4290 | 737 | 572 | 78% | 17% | 42% | 27% | 82% | 12% | 39_ALEXIS | 3562 | 773 | 666 | 86% | 22% | 49% | 21% | 94% | 2% | 22_CROWDERS MOUNTAIN | 4054 | 777 | 619 | 80% | 19% | 44% | 29% | 81% | 14% | 44_STANLEY #2 | 4722 | 852 | 618 | 73% | 18% | 46% | 26% | 85% | 11% | 28_CRAMERTON | 3463 | 861 | 657 | 76% | 25% | 45% | 24% | 88% | 6% | 23_BELMONT #1 | 3437 | 864 | 607 | 70% | 25% | 39% | 28% | 87% | 7% | 04_FOREST HEIGHTS | 5110 | 886 | 612 | 69% | 17% | 34% | 38% | 66% | 26% | 15_ROBINSON #1 | 5865 | 891 | 610 | 68% | 15% | 41% | 30% | 75% | 17% | 18_ASHBROOK | 3995 | 901 | 513 | 57% | 15% | 41% | 30% | 75% | 17% | 27_SOUTH POINT | 4200 | 969 | 773 | 80% | 23% | 48% | 23% | 88% | 5% |
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Andy Millard (D): Percent of votes: 30.33%, Total votes: 7748 out of 25542
Data
| Precinct | Registrations | Total Votes |
Votes | Percent | Election Day Turnout |
Reg. Rep | Reg. Dem | White | Black | 01_YORK CHESTER | 1304 | 213 | 98 | 46% | 16% | 29% | 38% | 75% | 17% | 07_HIGHLAND | 1314 | 220 | 207 | 94% | 17% | 4% | 79% | 11% | 83% | 14_GARDNER PARK | 1153 | 245 | 62 | 25% | 21% | 42% | 30% | 85% | 9% | 11_ARMSTRONG | 1913 | 293 | 169 | 58% | 15% | 21% | 50% | 54% | 38% | 08_WOODHILL | 1816 | 298 | 184 | 62% | 16% | 17% | 57% | 42% | 50% | 09_GRIER | 2108 | 302 | 141 | 47% | 14% | 28% | 44% | 59% | 32% | 06_MYRTLE | 2046 | 319 | 242 | 76% | 16% | 13% | 66% | 30% | 62% | 35_CHERRYVILLE #1 | 1652 | 333 | 74 | 22% | 20% | 37% | 34% | 86% | 11% | 33_TRYON | 2139 | 343 | 61 | 18% | 16% | 43% | 24% | 90% | 7% | 05_HEALTH CENTER | 2742 | 348 | 233 | 67% | 13% | 18% | 57% | 42% | 52% | 03_PLEASANT RIDGE | 2225 | 373 | 233 | 62% | 17% | 20% | 54% | 46% | 47% | 37_CHERRYVILLE #3 | 1500 | 374 | 97 | 26% | 25% | 37% | 36% | 86% | 11% | 10_SHERWOOD | 2766 | 385 | 164 | 43% | 14% | 34% | 40% | 69% | 24% | 41_DALLAS #2 | 3269 | 402 | 108 | 27% | 12% | 40% | 27% | 86% | 9% | 38_HIGH SHOALS | 2850 | 413 | 56 | 14% | 14% | 48% | 23% | 94% | 3% | 02_VICTORY | 2536 | 433 | 241 | 56% | 17% | 22% | 51% | 51% | 40% | 25_BELMONT #3 | 2173 | 446 | 94 | 21% | 21% | 41% | 25% | 86% | 6% | 21_BESSEMER CITY #2 | 2381 | 461 | 169 | 37% | 19% | 33% | 40% | 67% | 27% | 34_LANDERS CHAPEL | 2249 | 476 | 77 | 16% | 21% | 42% | 25% | 92% | 4% | 30_MCADENVILLE | 2226 | 526 | 132 | 25% | 24% | 40% | 26% | 89% | 6% | 26_CATAWBA HEIGHTS | 2845 | 532 | 165 | 31% | 19% | 38% | 26% | 83% | 8% | 40_DALLAS #1 | 4532 | 533 | 166 | 31% | 12% | 40% | 31% | 78% | 17% | 12_FLINT GROVES | 3106 | 538 | 170 | 32% | 17% | 37% | 34% | 79% | 15% | 45_MOUNT HOLLY #1 | 3510 | 543 | 207 | 38% | 15% | 33% | 33% | 74% | 19% | 36_CHERRYVILLE #2 | 3037 | 551 | 99 | 18% | 18% | 38% | 32% | 90% | 5% | 17_ROBINSON #2 | 4148 | 562 | 205 | 36% | 14% | 39% | 33% | 72% | 21% | 31_UNION | 3274 | 610 | 119 | 20% | 19% | 47% | 25% | 89% | 7% | 16_GASTON DAY | 4074 | 612 | 144 | 24% | 15% | 47% | 26% | 84% | 10% | 13_RANLO | 2627 | 620 | 177 | 29% | 24% | 37% | 32% | 77% | 15% | 20_BESSEMER CITY #1 | 3490 | 640 | 147 | 23% | 18% | 41% | 28% | 85% | 11% | 42_LUCIA | 2344 | 640 | 130 | 20% | 27% | 46% | 23% | 88% | 6% | 24_BELMONT #2 | 2804 | 653 | 205 | 31% | 23% | 34% | 33% | 80% | 12% | 46_MOUNT HOLLY #2 | 4898 | 668 | 199 | 30% | 14% | 44% | 24% | 87% | 7% | 19_SOUTH GASTONIA | 4851 | 700 | 215 | 31% | 14% | 39% | 32% | 77% | 17% | 32_LOWELL | 2423 | 704 | 169 | 24% | 29% | 38% | 28% | 84% | 10% | 29_NEW HOPE | 3735 | 722 | 125 | 17% | 19% | 47% | 22% | 89% | 6% | 43_STANLEY #1 | 4290 | 737 | 165 | 22% | 17% | 42% | 27% | 82% | 12% | 39_ALEXIS | 3562 | 773 | 107 | 14% | 22% | 49% | 21% | 94% | 2% | 22_CROWDERS MOUNTAIN | 4054 | 777 | 158 | 20% | 19% | 44% | 29% | 81% | 14% | 44_STANLEY #2 | 4722 | 852 | 234 | 27% | 18% | 46% | 26% | 85% | 11% | 28_CRAMERTON | 3463 | 861 | 204 | 24% | 25% | 45% | 24% | 88% | 6% | 23_BELMONT #1 | 3437 | 864 | 257 | 30% | 25% | 39% | 28% | 87% | 7% | 04_FOREST HEIGHTS | 4840 | 886 | 274 | 31% | 25% | 39% | 28% | 87% | 7% | 15_ROBINSON #1 | 4959 | 891 | 281 | 32% | 25% | 39% | 28% | 87% | 7% | 18_ASHBROOK | 6750 | 901 | 388 | 43% | 25% | 39% | 28% | 87% | 7% | 27_SOUTH POINT | 4200 | 969 | 196 | 20% | 23% | 48% | 23% | 88% | 5% |
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