Pennsylvania
ALL votes from Lawrence County.
Precincts added in order of number of votes.
Voters: 33744 Precincts: 64 Average votes per precinct: 527 Votes in median precinct: 552Registered Republicans: 45.7% Registered Democrats: 53.8%
Voting Machine: ES&S iVotronic DRE-Touchscreen
Data from: GitHub OpenElections Project
deltaM = 13%deltaMxV = 4,388
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Options:
Note: X/Y graph display only works for all votes, sorted by precinct size (number of votes)
These graphs show each candidate's CUMULATIVE percent of the vote for all points to the left of and including each precinct. As you move to the right, the results from more and more precincts are included. If you choose "ALL" votes, the points at the far right of the graph represent the outcome of the election.
In order to get a sense of what might be expected if there is no strong correlation between precinct size and political leaning, select "Count votes: In random order". Each time you redraw the graph you will see cumulative totals for randomly sorted precincts.
Benford's Law Analysis
This analysis compares the expected statistical distribution of the left-most digit of the vote count of each precinct to what would be expected for randomly distributed vote counts. It is a method used by forensic accountants to detect possible fraud. There is controversy about whether this law can be applied to elections, but we thought we would have a look at it anyway. Read more here.
NOTE: We show this analysis when there are 50 or more precincts in the set. Some argue that this analysis is best used with sets containing approximately 500 data points or more. Additionally, it is likely to fail if there are a great many precincts of approximately the same size.
NOTE: We show this analysis when there are 50 or more precincts in the set. Some argue that this analysis is best used with sets containing approximately 500 data points or more. Additionally, it is likely to fail if there are a great many precincts of approximately the same size.
Expected Benford's Law Distribution
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
Leftmost Digit of Vote Count - Frequency of Occurrence
Benford's Law Distribution for TRUMP
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
Leftmost Digit of Vote Count - Frequency of Occurance
Benford's Law Distribution for CLINTON
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
Leftmost Digit of Vote Count - Frequency of Occurance
Show Data
| Leftmost Digit | Expected Distribution | TRUMP | CLINTON |
| 1 | 30.1% | 14.1% | 56.3% |
| 2 | 17.6% | 17.2% | 35.9% |
| 3 | 12.5% | 21.9% | 3.1% |
| 4 | 9.7% | 29.7% | 0% |
| 5 | 7.9% | 12.5% | 0% |
| 6 | 6.7% | 3.1% | 1.6% |
| 7 | 5.8% | 0% | 0% |
| 8 | 5.1% | 0% | 1.6% |
| 9 | 4.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% |
Detailed Data
Download graph dataTRUMP (R): Percent of votes: 66.2%, Total votes: 22339 out of 33744
Data
| Precinct | Total Votes |
Votes | Percent | Cumulative | Cumulative Total | Cumulative Pct | SNPJ Boro | 6 | 3 | 50% | 3 | 6 | 50% | VOLANT Boro | 68 | 43 | 63% | 46 | 74 | 62% | ENON VALLEY Boro | 139 | 111 | 80% | 157 | 213 | 74% | NEW CASTLE City - W-1 | 273 | 96 | 35% | 253 | 486 | 52% | WAMPUM Boro | 280 | 165 | 59% | 418 | 766 | 55% | SOUTH NEW CASTLE Boro | 301 | 201 | 67% | 619 | 1067 | 58% | NEW CASTLE City - W-8 | 333 | 149 | 45% | 768 | 1400 | 55% | PERRY Twp - X-1 | 333 | 223 | 67% | 991 | 1733 | 57% | NEW CASTLE City - W-6 | 360 | 66 | 18% | 1057 | 2093 | 51% | ELLWOOD CITY Boro - W-3 | 352 | 188 | 53% | 1245 | 2445 | 51% | SHENANGO Twp - X-3 | 373 | 250 | 67% | 1495 | 2818 | 53% | ELLWOOD CITY Boro - W-2 | 371 | 185 | 50% | 1680 | 3189 | 53% | WASHINGTON Twp | 393 | 309 | 79% | 1989 | 3582 | 56% | NEW CASTLE City - W-3 | 391 | 197 | 50% | 2186 | 3973 | 55% | PLAIN GROVE Twp | 399 | 331 | 83% | 2517 | 4372 | 58% | PULASKI Twp - X-3 | 400 | 281 | 70% | 2798 | 4772 | 59% | ELLWOOD CITY Boro - W-5 | 448 | 225 | 50% | 3023 | 5220 | 58% | NEW CASTLE City - W-4 | 375 | 187 | 50% | 3210 | 5595 | 57% | ELLWOOD CITY Boro - W-1 | 415 | 248 | 60% | 3458 | 6010 | 58% | PULASKI Twp - X-1 | 435 | 339 | 78% | 3797 | 6445 | 59% | NEW CASTLE City - W-5 | 441 | 147 | 33% | 3944 | 6886 | 57% | NEW CASTLE City - W-2 | 436 | 169 | 39% | 4113 | 7322 | 56% | WAYNE Twp - X-1 | 448 | 273 | 61% | 4386 | 7770 | 56% | ELLWOOD CITY Boro - W-4 | 440 | 266 | 60% | 4652 | 8210 | 57% | TAYLOR Twp | 449 | 255 | 57% | 4907 | 8659 | 57% | SHENANGO Twp - X-4 | 478 | 357 | 75% | 5264 | 9137 | 58% | NESHANNOCK Twp - X-1 | 495 | 277 | 56% | 5541 | 9632 | 58% | BESSEMER Boro | 504 | 331 | 66% | 5872 | 10136 | 58% | SCOTT Twp - P-1 | 538 | 414 | 77% | 6286 | 10674 | 59% | LITTLE BEAVER Twp | 541 | 432 | 80% | 6718 | 11215 | 60% | ELLPORT Boro | 538 | 329 | 61% | 7047 | 11753 | 60% | UNION Twp - X-2 | 552 | 299 | 54% | 7346 | 12305 | 60% | NESHANNOCK Twp - X-6 | 555 | 372 | 67% | 7718 | 12860 | 60% | NEW CASTLE City - W-7 | 572 | 325 | 57% | 8043 | 13432 | 60% | PULASKI Twp - X-2 | 656 | 409 | 62% | 8452 | 14088 | 60% | UNION Twp - X-1 | 492 | 328 | 67% | 8780 | 14580 | 60% | HICKORY Twp - X-1 | 578 | 439 | 76% | 9219 | 15158 | 61% | NESHANNOCK Twp - X-2 | 581 | 383 | 66% | 9602 | 15739 | 61% | WILMINGTON Twp - X-1 | 578 | 448 | 78% | 10050 | 16317 | 62% | WILMINGTON Twp - X-2 | 602 | 469 | 78% | 10519 | 16919 | 62% | SCOTT Twp - P-2 | 621 | 468 | 75% | 10987 | 17540 | 63% | MAHONING Twp - X-2 | 620 | 412 | 66% | 11399 | 18160 | 63% | NORTH BEAVER Twp - X-3 | 635 | 495 | 78% | 11894 | 18795 | 63% | NORTH BEAVER Twp - X-1 | 638 | 460 | 72% | 12354 | 19433 | 64% | UNION Twp - X-3 | 651 | 392 | 60% | 12746 | 20084 | 63% | NEW BEAVER Boro - P-1 | 650 | 490 | 75% | 13236 | 20734 | 64% | SHENANGO Twp - X-6 | 643 | 441 | 69% | 13677 | 21377 | 64% | UNION Twp - X-4 | 652 | 389 | 60% | 14066 | 22029 | 64% | MAHONING Twp - X-1 | 662 | 471 | 71% | 14537 | 22691 | 64% | NESHANNOCK Twp - X-5 | 665 | 420 | 63% | 14957 | 23356 | 64% | PERRY Twp - X-2 | 668 | 519 | 78% | 15476 | 24024 | 64% | NESHANNOCK Twp - X-7 | 695 | 457 | 66% | 15933 | 24719 | 64% | SHENANGO Twp - X-1 | 703 | 541 | 77% | 16474 | 25422 | 65% | SHENANGO Twp - X-2 | 711 | 490 | 69% | 16964 | 26133 | 65% | NORTH BEAVER Twp - X-2 | 715 | 535 | 75% | 17499 | 26848 | 65% | HICKORY Twp - X-2 | 711 | 519 | 73% | 18018 | 27559 | 65% | SHENANGO Twp - X-5 | 719 | 489 | 68% | 18507 | 28278 | 65% | NESHANNOCK Twp - X-8 | 739 | 477 | 65% | 18984 | 29017 | 65% | NEW WILMINGTON Boro | 719 | 394 | 55% | 19378 | 29736 | 65% | SLIPPERY ROCK Twp - X-2 | 752 | 594 | 79% | 19972 | 30488 | 66% | SLIPPERY ROCK Twp - X-1 | 763 | 616 | 81% | 20588 | 31251 | 66% | NESHANNOCK Twp - X-3 | 818 | 562 | 69% | 21150 | 32069 | 66% | WAYNE Twp - X-2 | 826 | 596 | 72% | 21746 | 32895 | 66% | NESHANNOCK Twp - X-4 | 849 | 593 | 70% | 22339 | 33744 | 66% |
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CLINTON (D): Percent of votes: 33.8%, Total votes: 11405 out of 33744
Data
| Precinct | Total Votes |
Votes | Percent | Cumulative | Cumulative Total | Cumulative Pct | SNPJ Boro | 6 | 3 | 50% | 3 | 6 | 50% | VOLANT Boro | 68 | 25 | 37% | 28 | 74 | 38% | ENON VALLEY Boro | 139 | 28 | 20% | 56 | 213 | 26% | NEW CASTLE City - W-1 | 273 | 177 | 65% | 233 | 486 | 48% | WAMPUM Boro | 280 | 115 | 41% | 348 | 766 | 45% | SOUTH NEW CASTLE Boro | 301 | 100 | 33% | 448 | 1067 | 42% | NEW CASTLE City - W-8 | 333 | 184 | 55% | 632 | 1400 | 45% | PERRY Twp - X-1 | 333 | 110 | 33% | 742 | 1733 | 43% | NEW CASTLE City - W-6 | 360 | 294 | 82% | 1036 | 2093 | 49% | ELLWOOD CITY Boro - W-3 | 352 | 164 | 47% | 1200 | 2445 | 49% | SHENANGO Twp - X-3 | 373 | 123 | 33% | 1323 | 2818 | 47% | ELLWOOD CITY Boro - W-2 | 371 | 186 | 50% | 1509 | 3189 | 47% | WASHINGTON Twp | 393 | 84 | 21% | 1593 | 3582 | 44% | NEW CASTLE City - W-3 | 391 | 194 | 50% | 1787 | 3973 | 45% | PLAIN GROVE Twp | 399 | 68 | 17% | 1855 | 4372 | 42% | PULASKI Twp - X-3 | 400 | 119 | 30% | 1974 | 4772 | 41% | NEW CASTLE City - W-4 | 448 | 223 | 50% | 2197 | 5220 | 42% | ELLWOOD CITY Boro - W-5 | 375 | 188 | 50% | 2385 | 5595 | 43% | ELLWOOD CITY Boro - W-1 | 415 | 167 | 40% | 2552 | 6010 | 42% | PULASKI Twp - X-1 | 435 | 96 | 22% | 2648 | 6445 | 41% | NEW CASTLE City - W-5 | 441 | 294 | 67% | 2942 | 6886 | 43% | NEW CASTLE City - W-2 | 436 | 267 | 61% | 3209 | 7322 | 44% | WAYNE Twp - X-1 | 448 | 175 | 39% | 3384 | 7770 | 44% | ELLWOOD CITY Boro - W-4 | 440 | 174 | 40% | 3558 | 8210 | 43% | TAYLOR Twp | 449 | 194 | 43% | 3752 | 8659 | 43% | SHENANGO Twp - X-4 | 478 | 121 | 25% | 3873 | 9137 | 42% | NESHANNOCK Twp - X-1 | 495 | 218 | 44% | 4091 | 9632 | 42% | BESSEMER Boro | 504 | 173 | 34% | 4264 | 10136 | 42% | SCOTT Twp - P-1 | 538 | 124 | 23% | 4388 | 10674 | 41% | LITTLE BEAVER Twp | 541 | 109 | 20% | 4497 | 11215 | 40% | ELLPORT Boro | 538 | 209 | 39% | 4706 | 11753 | 40% | UNION Twp - X-2 | 552 | 253 | 46% | 4959 | 12305 | 40% | NESHANNOCK Twp - X-6 | 555 | 183 | 33% | 5142 | 12860 | 40% | NEW CASTLE City - W-7 | 572 | 247 | 43% | 5389 | 13432 | 40% | UNION Twp - X-1 | 656 | 247 | 38% | 5636 | 14088 | 40% | PULASKI Twp - X-2 | 492 | 164 | 33% | 5800 | 14580 | 40% | HICKORY Twp - X-1 | 578 | 139 | 24% | 5939 | 15158 | 39% | NESHANNOCK Twp - X-2 | 581 | 198 | 34% | 6137 | 15739 | 39% | WILMINGTON Twp - X-1 | 578 | 130 | 22% | 6267 | 16317 | 38% | WILMINGTON Twp - X-2 | 602 | 133 | 22% | 6400 | 16919 | 38% | SCOTT Twp - P-2 | 621 | 153 | 25% | 6553 | 17540 | 37% | MAHONING Twp - X-2 | 620 | 208 | 34% | 6761 | 18160 | 37% | NORTH BEAVER Twp - X-3 | 635 | 140 | 22% | 6901 | 18795 | 37% | NORTH BEAVER Twp - X-1 | 638 | 178 | 28% | 7079 | 19433 | 36% | UNION Twp - X-3 | 651 | 259 | 40% | 7338 | 20084 | 37% | NEW BEAVER Boro - P-1 | 650 | 160 | 25% | 7498 | 20734 | 36% | SHENANGO Twp - X-6 | 643 | 202 | 31% | 7700 | 21377 | 36% | UNION Twp - X-4 | 652 | 263 | 40% | 7963 | 22029 | 36% | MAHONING Twp - X-1 | 662 | 191 | 29% | 8154 | 22691 | 36% | NESHANNOCK Twp - X-5 | 665 | 245 | 37% | 8399 | 23356 | 36% | PERRY Twp - X-2 | 668 | 149 | 22% | 8548 | 24024 | 36% | NESHANNOCK Twp - X-7 | 695 | 238 | 34% | 8786 | 24719 | 36% | SHENANGO Twp - X-1 | 703 | 162 | 23% | 8948 | 25422 | 35% | SHENANGO Twp - X-2 | 711 | 221 | 31% | 9169 | 26133 | 35% | NORTH BEAVER Twp - X-2 | 715 | 180 | 25% | 9349 | 26848 | 35% | HICKORY Twp - X-2 | 711 | 192 | 27% | 9541 | 27559 | 35% | SHENANGO Twp - X-5 | 719 | 230 | 32% | 9771 | 28278 | 35% | NESHANNOCK Twp - X-8 | 739 | 262 | 35% | 10033 | 29017 | 35% | NEW WILMINGTON Boro | 719 | 325 | 45% | 10358 | 29736 | 35% | SLIPPERY ROCK Twp - X-2 | 752 | 158 | 21% | 10516 | 30488 | 34% | SLIPPERY ROCK Twp - X-1 | 763 | 147 | 19% | 10663 | 31251 | 34% | NESHANNOCK Twp - X-3 | 818 | 256 | 31% | 10919 | 32069 | 34% | WAYNE Twp - X-2 | 826 | 230 | 28% | 11149 | 32895 | 34% | NESHANNOCK Twp - X-4 | 849 | 256 | 30% | 11405 | 33744 | 34% |
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