Pennsylvania
ALL votes from Northumberland County.
Precincts added in order of number of votes.
Voters: 35215 Precincts: 75 Average votes per precinct: 470 Votes in median precinct: 400Registered Republicans: 55.7% Registered Democrats: 43.6%
Voting Machine: Premier/Diebold AccuVote TSX DRE-Touchscreen
Data from: GitHub OpenElections Project
deltaM = 1%deltaMxV = 351
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Options:
Note: X/Y graph display only works for all votes, sorted by precinct size (number of votes)
These graphs show each candidate's CUMULATIVE percent of the vote for all points to the left of and including each precinct. As you move to the right, the results from more and more precincts are included. If you choose "ALL" votes, the points at the far right of the graph represent the outcome of the election.
In order to get a sense of what might be expected if there is no strong correlation between precinct size and political leaning, select "Count votes: In random order". Each time you redraw the graph you will see cumulative totals for randomly sorted precincts.
Benford's Law Analysis
This analysis compares the expected statistical distribution of the left-most digit of the vote count of each precinct to what would be expected for randomly distributed vote counts. It is a method used by forensic accountants to detect possible fraud. There is controversy about whether this law can be applied to elections, but we thought we would have a look at it anyway. Read more here.
NOTE: We show this analysis when there are 50 or more precincts in the set. Some argue that this analysis is best used with sets containing approximately 500 data points or more. Additionally, it is likely to fail if there are a great many precincts of approximately the same size.
NOTE: We show this analysis when there are 50 or more precincts in the set. Some argue that this analysis is best used with sets containing approximately 500 data points or more. Additionally, it is likely to fail if there are a great many precincts of approximately the same size.
Expected Benford's Law Distribution
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
Leftmost Digit of Vote Count - Frequency of Occurrence
Benford's Law Distribution for TRUMP
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
Leftmost Digit of Vote Count - Frequency of Occurance
Benford's Law Distribution for CLINTON
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
Leftmost Digit of Vote Count - Frequency of Occurance
Show Data
| Leftmost Digit | Expected Distribution | TRUMP | CLINTON |
| 1 | 30.1% | 16.2% | 46.7% |
| 2 | 17.6% | 32.4% | 18.7% |
| 3 | 12.5% | 16.2% | 5.3% |
| 4 | 9.7% | 10.8% | 9.3% |
| 5 | 7.9% | 10.8% | 6.7% |
| 6 | 6.7% | 4.1% | 0% |
| 7 | 5.8% | 1.4% | 2.7% |
| 8 | 5.1% | 1.4% | 5.3% |
| 9 | 4.6% | 6.8% | 5.3% |
Detailed Data
Download graph dataTRUMP (R): Percent of votes: 72.21%, Total votes: 25427 out of 35215
Data
| Precinct | Total Votes |
Votes | Percent | Cumulative | Cumulative Total | Cumulative Pct | COAL Twp - W-4-1 | 302 | 195 | 65% | 195 | 302 | 65% | RIVERSIDE Boro - P-A (Cong 10) | 1 | 0 | 0% | 195 | 303 | 64% | SHAMOKIN City - W-8 | 79 | 54 | 68% | 249 | 382 | 65% | MC EWENSVILLE Boro | 111 | 90 | 81% | 339 | 493 | 69% | HERNDON Boro | 130 | 95 | 73% | 434 | 623 | 70% | MT. CARMEL Twp - D-LOCUST GAP | 133 | 89 | 67% | 523 | 756 | 69% | SHAMOKIN City - W-3 | 139 | 98 | 71% | 621 | 895 | 69% | SNYDERTOWN Boro | 153 | 121 | 79% | 742 | 1048 | 71% | LITTLE MAHANOY Twp | 180 | 149 | 83% | 891 | 1228 | 73% | WEST CAMERON Twp | 211 | 183 | 87% | 1074 | 1439 | 75% | MT. CARMEL Twp - D-NATALIE/Strong | 215 | 159 | 74% | 1233 | 1654 | 75% | COAL Twp - W-4 | 230 | 174 | 76% | 1407 | 1884 | 75% | SHAMOKIN City - W-7 | 232 | 147 | 63% | 1554 | 2116 | 73% | SHAMOKIN City - W-6 | 238 | 166 | 70% | 1720 | 2354 | 73% | SHAMOKIN City - W-2 | 244 | 189 | 77% | 1909 | 2598 | 73% | MARION HEIGHTS Boro | 261 | 174 | 67% | 2083 | 2859 | 73% | UPPER MAHANOY Twp | 283 | 237 | 84% | 2320 | 3142 | 74% | EAST CHILLISQUAQUE Twp | 272 | 225 | 83% | 2545 | 3414 | 75% | WASHINGTON Twp | 296 | 246 | 83% | 2791 | 3710 | 75% | EAST CAMERON Twp | 301 | 244 | 81% | 3035 | 4011 | 76% | COAL Twp - W-1 | 301 | 215 | 71% | 3250 | 4312 | 75% | WATSONTOWN Boro - W-1 | 299 | 210 | 70% | 3460 | 4611 | 75% | TURBOTVILLE Boro | 360 | 223 | 62% | 3683 | 4971 | 74% | SUNBURY City - W-6 | 276 | 178 | 64% | 3861 | 5247 | 74% | SHAMOKIN City - W-5 | 324 | 202 | 62% | 4063 | 5571 | 73% | MT. CARMEL Boro - W-1 | 338 | 211 | 62% | 4274 | 5909 | 72% | MILTON Boro - W-4 | 345 | 214 | 62% | 4488 | 6254 | 72% | KULPMONT Boro - P-1 | 363 | 263 | 72% | 4751 | 6617 | 72% | JORDAN Twp | 363 | 316 | 87% | 5067 | 6980 | 73% | MT. CARMEL Twp - D-WEST | 363 | 226 | 62% | 5293 | 7343 | 72% | SHAMOKIN City - W-1 | 364 | 270 | 74% | 5563 | 7707 | 72% | KULPMONT Boro - P-2 | 369 | 230 | 62% | 5793 | 8076 | 72% | MT. CARMEL Twp - D-DIAMOND/Exchange | 376 | 257 | 68% | 6050 | 8452 | 72% | SHAMOKIN City - W-4 | 371 | 257 | 69% | 6307 | 8823 | 71% | KULPMONT Boro - P-3 | 395 | 256 | 65% | 6563 | 9218 | 71% | JACKSON Twp | 402 | 353 | 88% | 6916 | 9620 | 72% | COAL Twp - W-2 | 400 | 269 | 67% | 7185 | 10020 | 72% | RALPHO Twp - D-2 | 487 | 317 | 65% | 7502 | 10507 | 71% | SUNBURY City - W-5 | 330 | 239 | 72% | 7741 | 10837 | 71% | NORTHUMBERLAND Boro - W-1 | 407 | 274 | 67% | 8015 | 11244 | 71% | MILTON Boro - W-1 | 434 | 322 | 74% | 8337 | 11678 | 71% | MT. CARMEL Boro - W-2 | 447 | 296 | 66% | 8633 | 12125 | 71% | COAL Twp - W-3 | 451 | 296 | 66% | 8929 | 12576 | 71% | MILTON Boro - W-2 | 461 | 288 | 62% | 9217 | 13037 | 71% | DELAWARE Twp - D-SOUTH | 460 | 352 | 77% | 9569 | 13497 | 71% | MILTON Boro - W-3 | 460 | 309 | 67% | 9878 | 13957 | 71% | SUNBURY City - W-4 | 470 | 299 | 64% | 10177 | 14427 | 71% | SUNBURY City - W-2 | 497 | 303 | 61% | 10480 | 14924 | 70% | DELAWARE Twp - D-EAST | 495 | 423 | 85% | 10903 | 15419 | 71% | LOWER AUGUSTA Twp | 499 | 407 | 82% | 11310 | 15918 | 71% | UPPER AUGUSTA Twp - D-NORTHWEST | 519 | 374 | 72% | 11684 | 16437 | 71% | RUSH Twp | 543 | 411 | 76% | 12095 | 16980 | 71% | SUNBURY City - W-1 | 539 | 319 | 59% | 12414 | 17519 | 71% | WATSONTOWN Boro - W-2 | 546 | 382 | 70% | 12796 | 18065 | 71% | NORTHUMBERLAND Boro - W-3 | 540 | 361 | 67% | 13157 | 18605 | 71% | MT. CARMEL Boro - W-4 | 553 | 340 | 61% | 13497 | 19158 | 70% | MILTON Boro - W-5 | 604 | 427 | 71% | 13924 | 19762 | 70% | COAL Twp - W-5 | 633 | 465 | 73% | 14389 | 20395 | 71% | ZERBE Twp | 637 | 514 | 81% | 14903 | 21032 | 71% | NORTHUMBERLAND Boro - W-2 | 635 | 407 | 64% | 15310 | 21667 | 71% | SUNBURY City - W-3 | 659 | 438 | 66% | 15748 | 22326 | 71% | POINT Twp - D-EAST | 693 | 512 | 74% | 16260 | 23019 | 71% | COAL Twp - W-6 | 728 | 501 | 69% | 16761 | 23747 | 71% | MT. CARMEL Boro - W-3 | 716 | 480 | 67% | 17241 | 24463 | 70% | LEWIS Twp | 741 | 578 | 78% | 17819 | 25204 | 71% | UPPER AUGUSTA Twp - D-NORTHEAST | 742 | 559 | 75% | 18378 | 25946 | 71% | LOWER MAHANOY Twp | 751 | 626 | 83% | 19004 | 26697 | 71% | TURBOT Twp | 809 | 597 | 74% | 19601 | 27506 | 71% | DELAWARE Twp - D-WEST | 822 | 654 | 80% | 20255 | 28328 | 72% | WEST CHILLISQUAQUE Twp | 885 | 683 | 77% | 20938 | 29213 | 72% | RIVERSIDE Boro - P-B (Cong 11) | 939 | 583 | 62% | 21521 | 30152 | 71% | POINT Twp - D-WEST | 1079 | 798 | 74% | 22319 | 31231 | 71% | ROCKEFELLER Twp | 1115 | 914 | 82% | 23233 | 32346 | 72% | SHAMOKIN Twp | 1138 | 901 | 79% | 24134 | 33484 | 72% | RALPHO Twp - D-1 | 1731 | 1293 | 75% | 25427 | 35215 | 72% |
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CLINTON (D): Percent of votes: 27.79%, Total votes: 9788 out of 35215
Data
| Precinct | Total Votes |
Votes | Percent | Cumulative | Cumulative Total | Cumulative Pct | COAL Twp - W-4-1 | 302 | 107 | 35% | 107 | 302 | 35% | RIVERSIDE Boro - P-A (Cong 10) | 1 | 1 | 100% | 108 | 303 | 36% | SHAMOKIN City - W-8 | 79 | 25 | 32% | 133 | 382 | 35% | MC EWENSVILLE Boro | 111 | 21 | 19% | 154 | 493 | 31% | HERNDON Boro | 130 | 35 | 27% | 189 | 623 | 30% | MT. CARMEL Twp - D-LOCUST GAP | 133 | 44 | 33% | 233 | 756 | 31% | SHAMOKIN City - W-3 | 139 | 41 | 29% | 274 | 895 | 31% | SNYDERTOWN Boro | 153 | 32 | 21% | 306 | 1048 | 29% | LITTLE MAHANOY Twp | 180 | 31 | 17% | 337 | 1228 | 27% | WEST CAMERON Twp | 211 | 28 | 13% | 365 | 1439 | 25% | MT. CARMEL Twp - D-NATALIE/Strong | 215 | 56 | 26% | 421 | 1654 | 25% | COAL Twp - W-4 | 230 | 56 | 24% | 477 | 1884 | 25% | SHAMOKIN City - W-7 | 232 | 85 | 37% | 562 | 2116 | 27% | SHAMOKIN City - W-6 | 238 | 72 | 30% | 634 | 2354 | 27% | SHAMOKIN City - W-2 | 244 | 55 | 23% | 689 | 2598 | 27% | MARION HEIGHTS Boro | 261 | 87 | 33% | 776 | 2859 | 27% | UPPER MAHANOY Twp | 283 | 46 | 16% | 822 | 3142 | 26% | EAST CHILLISQUAQUE Twp | 272 | 47 | 17% | 869 | 3414 | 25% | WASHINGTON Twp | 296 | 50 | 17% | 919 | 3710 | 25% | EAST CAMERON Twp | 301 | 57 | 19% | 976 | 4011 | 24% | COAL Twp - W-1 | 301 | 86 | 29% | 1062 | 4312 | 25% | WATSONTOWN Boro - W-1 | 299 | 89 | 30% | 1151 | 4611 | 25% | SUNBURY City - W-6 | 360 | 137 | 38% | 1288 | 4971 | 26% | TURBOTVILLE Boro | 276 | 98 | 36% | 1386 | 5247 | 26% | SHAMOKIN City - W-5 | 324 | 122 | 38% | 1508 | 5571 | 27% | MT. CARMEL Boro - W-1 | 338 | 127 | 38% | 1635 | 5909 | 28% | MILTON Boro - W-4 | 345 | 131 | 38% | 1766 | 6254 | 28% | KULPMONT Boro - P-1 | 363 | 100 | 28% | 1866 | 6617 | 28% | JORDAN Twp | 363 | 47 | 13% | 1913 | 6980 | 27% | MT. CARMEL Twp - D-WEST | 363 | 137 | 38% | 2050 | 7343 | 28% | SHAMOKIN City - W-1 | 364 | 94 | 26% | 2144 | 7707 | 28% | KULPMONT Boro - P-2 | 369 | 139 | 38% | 2283 | 8076 | 28% | MT. CARMEL Twp - D-DIAMOND/Exchange | 376 | 119 | 32% | 2402 | 8452 | 28% | SHAMOKIN City - W-4 | 371 | 114 | 31% | 2516 | 8823 | 29% | KULPMONT Boro - P-3 | 395 | 139 | 35% | 2655 | 9218 | 29% | JACKSON Twp | 402 | 49 | 12% | 2704 | 9620 | 28% | COAL Twp - W-2 | 400 | 131 | 33% | 2835 | 10020 | 28% | SUNBURY City - W-5 | 487 | 170 | 35% | 3005 | 10507 | 29% | RALPHO Twp - D-2 | 330 | 91 | 28% | 3096 | 10837 | 29% | NORTHUMBERLAND Boro - W-1 | 407 | 133 | 33% | 3229 | 11244 | 29% | MILTON Boro - W-1 | 434 | 112 | 26% | 3341 | 11678 | 29% | MT. CARMEL Boro - W-2 | 447 | 151 | 34% | 3492 | 12125 | 29% | COAL Twp - W-3 | 451 | 155 | 34% | 3647 | 12576 | 29% | MILTON Boro - W-2 | 461 | 173 | 38% | 3820 | 13037 | 29% | DELAWARE Twp - D-SOUTH | 460 | 108 | 23% | 3928 | 13497 | 29% | MILTON Boro - W-3 | 460 | 151 | 33% | 4079 | 13957 | 29% | SUNBURY City - W-4 | 470 | 171 | 36% | 4250 | 14427 | 29% | SUNBURY City - W-2 | 497 | 194 | 39% | 4444 | 14924 | 30% | DELAWARE Twp - D-EAST | 495 | 72 | 15% | 4516 | 15419 | 29% | LOWER AUGUSTA Twp | 499 | 92 | 18% | 4608 | 15918 | 29% | UPPER AUGUSTA Twp - D-NORTHWEST | 519 | 145 | 28% | 4753 | 16437 | 29% | RUSH Twp | 543 | 132 | 24% | 4885 | 16980 | 29% | SUNBURY City - W-1 | 539 | 220 | 41% | 5105 | 17519 | 29% | WATSONTOWN Boro - W-2 | 546 | 164 | 30% | 5269 | 18065 | 29% | NORTHUMBERLAND Boro - W-3 | 540 | 179 | 33% | 5448 | 18605 | 29% | MT. CARMEL Boro - W-4 | 553 | 213 | 39% | 5661 | 19158 | 30% | MILTON Boro - W-5 | 604 | 177 | 29% | 5838 | 19762 | 30% | COAL Twp - W-5 | 633 | 168 | 27% | 6006 | 20395 | 29% | ZERBE Twp | 637 | 123 | 19% | 6129 | 21032 | 29% | NORTHUMBERLAND Boro - W-2 | 635 | 228 | 36% | 6357 | 21667 | 29% | SUNBURY City - W-3 | 659 | 221 | 34% | 6578 | 22326 | 29% | POINT Twp - D-EAST | 693 | 181 | 26% | 6759 | 23019 | 29% | COAL Twp - W-6 | 728 | 227 | 31% | 6986 | 23747 | 29% | MT. CARMEL Boro - W-3 | 716 | 236 | 33% | 7222 | 24463 | 30% | LEWIS Twp | 741 | 163 | 22% | 7385 | 25204 | 29% | UPPER AUGUSTA Twp - D-NORTHEAST | 742 | 183 | 25% | 7568 | 25946 | 29% | LOWER MAHANOY Twp | 751 | 125 | 17% | 7693 | 26697 | 29% | TURBOT Twp | 809 | 212 | 26% | 7905 | 27506 | 29% | DELAWARE Twp - D-WEST | 822 | 168 | 20% | 8073 | 28328 | 28% | WEST CHILLISQUAQUE Twp | 885 | 202 | 23% | 8275 | 29213 | 28% | RIVERSIDE Boro - P-B (Cong 11) | 939 | 356 | 38% | 8631 | 30152 | 29% | POINT Twp - D-WEST | 1079 | 281 | 26% | 8912 | 31231 | 29% | ROCKEFELLER Twp | 1115 | 201 | 18% | 9113 | 32346 | 28% | SHAMOKIN Twp | 1138 | 237 | 21% | 9350 | 33484 | 28% | RALPHO Twp - D-1 | 1731 | 438 | 25% | 9788 | 35215 | 28% |
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